Exploring complementary effects of solar and wind power generation

Abstract

The increased participation of variable renewable energy sources (VREs) in electrical matrices worldwide is essential for achieving several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as SDGs 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 13 (Climate Action). However, it brings several challenges to the planning and operation of power systems, mainly due to the intermittency of VREs. In this context, the complementary effects between different intermittent resources have garnered growing attention in the literature since such properties offer a collective capability to capture the stochastic nature of intermittent power generation when simulating scenarios. This work proposes a stochastic simulation model of renewable energy generation that explores several complementary effects between wind and photovoltaic resources in different Brazilian locations. The approach considers calculating energy generation states to simultaneously represent the generation of multiple renewable sources and using probability transition matrices based on historical data. The synthetic time series are subsequently assessed using statistical methods that indicate good adherence of the generated scenarios to most stylized facts of the historical series.