Potential conflict diagnosis, simulation optimization and coordination of production-living-ecological space in gully areas of the Loess Plateau, China

Abstract

The gully areas on the Loess Plateau have always been ecologically fragile agricultural areas. These areas often face the common problem of intensified conflicts in production-living-ecological space during economic development, and there is an urgent need for systematic spatial governance. This study innovatively developed a full process technical framework of “identification diagnosis - simulation optimization - coordinated governance” for potential conflicts in the production-living-ecological space, and used Huachi County in the gully area of the Loess Plateau as an example for empirical research. Under this framework, we analyzed the transfer patterns of production, living, and ecological space in the research area; Improved the spatial suitability evaluation index system of “multi-dimensional + multi-objective”; The conflict determination matrix was used to identify the scope, scale, type, and intensity of potential spatial conflicts; We conducted spatial optimization simulations under two scenarios: prioritizing ecological protection and prioritizing social and livelihood development, and designed an overall spatial optimization plan; Propose spatial collaborative governance strategies based on the theory of public space governance. Research shows that this framework has good applicability for the research area and is more direct for guiding subsequent spatial planning and policy practice. The potential conflict between production space and ecological space in Huachi County is the most common, the potential conflict intensity between living space and production space is the largest, and the potential conflict risk between living space and ecological space is rising. To coordinate potential conflicts in space, it is necessary to establish a vertical allocation type of spatial function coordination chain of “goal + collaboration + adjustment”, as well as a horizontal negotiation type of spatial configuration coordination chain of “allocation + cooperation + balance”, forming a “double vertical and double horizontal” spatial coordination framework.