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8Rs for circular water and sanitation systems: Leveraging circular economy thinking for safe, resilient and inclusive services 循环型供水和卫生系统的 8R:利用循环经济思维提供安全、弹性和包容性服务
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101093
To achieve their normative health, environmental and social objectives, water and sanitation services must be safely managed, inclusive and climate resilient. Meeting these imperatives presents a need and opportunity for innovative thinking about water and sanitation service systems. Circular economy concepts are being applied across a multitude of product and service sectors with the aim to facilitate regenerative flows of resources. Given the dependence on water resources, associated climate risks, and the generation of reusable waste products in water and sanitation service delivery, circular economy concepts can be usefully leveraged to drive sustainability outcomes. This article contributes a heuristic in the form of a conceptual framework for applying circular economy concepts in the design and delivery of water and sanitation services in diverse Global South contexts. The framework seeks to drive multiple outcomes relevant to water and sanitation initiatives: safely managed services, social inclusion, and climate resilience. Co-developed by an international research team applying a theoretical multiplicity approach and collaborative sensemaking, the heuristic takes the form of a suite of eight adapted circular economy ‘R strategies’ for water and sanitation. The R strategies were selected and articulated to reflect theory-based principles of circular economy, climate resilience and inclusion. They are intended to prompt thinking and action in pursuit of safely managed, climate resilient, inclusive water and sanitation services that align with the broader sustainability directions that circular economy narratives aspire to. The heuristic offers a conceptually rigorous, practical tool that can support collaborative, deliberative processes to realise the potential benefits of circularity in water and sanitation service systems.
为了实现规范的健康、环境和社会目标,供水和卫生服务必须具有安全管理、包容性和气候适应性。要满足这些要求,就需要对供水和卫生服务系统进行创新思考,这也是一个机遇。循环经济概念正被应用于众多产品和服务部门,目的是促进资源的再生流动。鉴于水资源的依赖性、相关的气候风险以及在提供水和卫生服务过程中产生的可重复使用的废品,循环经济概念可以有效地利用来推动可持续发展成果。本文以概念框架的形式提供了一种启发式方法,用于在全球南部不同环境中将循环经济概念应用于水和卫生服务的设计与提供。该框架旨在推动与供水和卫生设施相关的多种成果:安全管理服务、社会包容和气候适应力。该启发式框架由一个国际研究团队共同开发,采用了理论多重性方法和协作感知法,其形式是一套针对水和卫生设施的八项经调整的循环经济 "R 战略"。这些 "R 战略 "的选择和阐述反映了以理论为基础的循环经济、气候适应性和包容性原则。它们旨在促进思考和行动,以追求安全管理、气候适应力强、具有包容性的水和卫生服务,并与循环经济论述所期望的更广泛的可持续发展方向保持一致。启发式提供了一个概念严谨、实用的工具,可以支持合作、审议过程,以实现水和卫生服务系统循环性的潜在效益。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the dependence of the observed urban air pollution extremes in the vicinity of coal fuelled power plants on combined effects of anthropogenic and meteorological drivers 以煤为燃料的发电厂附近观测到的城市空气污染极值与人为和气象驱动因素综合影响的关系分析
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101095
In this paper we assessed effects of changes of meteorological drivers, taken from datasets of observational records and modelling outputs, and human-made pollution, derived from records of energy production, on the mainly wintertime extreme observed values of urban particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the relative vicinity of coal fuelled thermoelectric power plants (TPPs) in Montenegro and Serbia. We used wavelet transform analysis, together with the dependency analysis and analysis of averages of climatic conditions, to study temporal dynamics of urban air pollution extremes in the vicinity of TPPs, the coincidence of their changes with observed levels of SO2 and NO2 concentrations in the air, and dependence of PM changes on several possible meteorological and anthropogenic drivers. We found that PM variations in urban areas are most probably caused by PM-SO2/NO2 coincidences that appear after a 2- to 3-h time lags needed for transformation of SO2/NO2 TPP emissions into PM particles, if pollution is caused by TPP emissions alone. When other causes of PM variations than the TPP production exist, we found that PM-SO2/NO2 correlations appear at time ranges from several hours to several days. In our analysis only the changes in the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) coincided with the drive to extremes in PM values, at PBLH levels lower than 300m. Following these findings, we suggested that PM extremes in our sample could be viewed as preconditioned compound events, where TPP and urban heating emissions provide preconditions for PM extremes and PBLH serves as a major meteorological driver to such events.
在本文中,我们评估了气象驱动因素(取自观测记录和模型输出数据集)和人为污染(取自能源生产记录)的变化对黑山和塞尔维亚以煤为燃料的热电厂(TPPs)附近主要是冬季城市颗粒物(PM)浓度极端观测值的影响。我们使用小波变换分析、依赖性分析和气候条件平均值分析,研究了热电厂附近城市空气污染极端值的时间动态、其变化与空气中二氧化硫和二氧化氮浓度观测值的吻合程度,以及可吸入颗粒物变化与几种可能的气象和人为因素的关系。我们发现,如果污染仅仅是由热电联产排放造成的,那么城市地区的可吸入颗粒物变化很可能是由可吸入颗粒物-二氧化硫/二氧化氮重合造成的,这种重合出现在二氧化硫/二氧化氮热电联产排放转化为可吸入颗粒物所需的 2 到 3 小时时滞之后。如果除了 TPP 的产生之外,还有其他原因导致 PM 的变化,我们发现 PM-SO2/NO2 的相关性会在几小时到几天的时间范围内出现。在我们的分析中,只有行星边界层高度(PBLH)的变化与 PBLH 水平低于 300 米时 PM 值达到极值的驱动力相吻合。根据这些发现,我们建议将样本中的可吸入颗粒物极端事件视为有先决条件的复合事件,其中全氟辛烷磺酸和城市供热排放为可吸入颗粒物极端事件提供了先决条件,而行星边界层高度则是此类事件的主要气象驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Ecological networks reveal important taxa for ecosystem function in two subtropical South African estuaries 生态网络揭示了南非两个亚热带河口生态系统功能的重要分类群
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101090
Biodiversity is essential for estuarine ecosystems' functioning, resilience, and persistence. While biodiversity assessments provide some insight into the ecosystem state, they cannot quantify every aspect of ecosystem-level function. We assessed aspects of estuarine ecosystem function and pinpointed taxa of interest that fulfil specific roles in estuarine ecosystems, using a series of novel food web model ensembles and Ecological Network Analysis. We investigated emergent network properties of two subtropical South African estuaries, the anthropogenically impacted large temporarily closed uMdloti Estuary and the ‘near natural’ predominantly open uMlalazi Estuary, during a drought period induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation. In addition, important network components were identified to elucidate the importance of estuarine/marine taxa in maintaining ecosystem function. The key findings included (1) estuaries exhibit system-specific functional responses under drought conditions, and (2) estuarine/marine taxa are critical for overall ecosystem function. Both estuaries showed seasonal differences in ecosystem activity and reliance on trophic level I (microalgae and detritus) to fuel the food web, and persistently low cycling (<9.3 %). However, compared to uMdloti Estuary, uMlalazi Estuary showed less variation in mean seasonal activity (1597–2095 mgC m−2 d−1), and higher reliance on detritus to fuel the food web (D:H > 2.02), indicating greater ecosystem functional resilience to external perturbations. uMlalazi Estuary ecosystem function could be attributed to predominantly open mouth conditions maintaining a salinity gradient, and subsequent large contributions to overall ecosystem function from typically estuarine/marine invertebrate taxa. In contrast, the uMdloti Estuary, dominated by freshwater/brackish taxa under prolonged closed mouth conditions, showed greater seasonal variations in mean system activity (1084–2289 mgC m−2 d−1) and generally high reliance on microalgae (D:H < 1.26), indicative of decreased resilience to external perturbations. During this study, a single mouth breach acted as a ’biological reset’ of uMdloti Estuary, enabling recruitment of estuarine/marine taxa, and a temporary recovery in ecosystem function reflected in increased system cycling (FCI >14.05 %) and decreased reliance on microalgae (D:H > 1. 41). These findings suggest that future predicted drought impacts on estuarine ecosystem function may be partially system-specific due to differing estuarine types, anthropogenic impact, and invertebrate community composition. This study provides a scientific link between ecosystem-level indicators and the role of individual taxa within the system, which is a valuable complement to biodiversity assessments and ecosystem state evaluation.
生物多样性对河口生态系统的功能、恢复力和持久性至关重要。虽然生物多样性评估能提供一些生态系统状态的信息,但它们无法量化生态系统功能的方方面面。我们利用一系列新颖的食物网模型组合和生态网络分析,评估了河口生态系统功能的各个方面,并确定了在河口生态系统中发挥特定作用的相关类群。在厄尔尼诺南方涛动引起的干旱期间,我们调查了两个亚热带南非河口的新兴网络特性,一个是受人类影响的暂时封闭的大型 uMdloti 河口,另一个是 "接近自然 "的主要开放的 uMlalazi 河口。此外,还确定了重要的网络组成部分,以阐明河口/海洋类群在维持生态系统功能方面的重要性。主要发现包括:(1)在干旱条件下,河口表现出特定的系统功能反应;(2)河口/海洋类群对生态系统的整体功能至关重要。这两个河口在生态系统活动和依赖营养级 I(微藻和残渣)为食物网提供燃料方面都表现出季节性差异,且循环率(<9.3 %)持续较低。然而,与乌姆洛蒂河口相比,乌姆拉齐河口的平均季节活动变化较小(1597-2095 毫克碳 m-2 d-1),食物网对残渣的依赖程度较高(D:H >2.02),表明生态系统对外部扰动的功能恢复能力较强。uMlalazi 河口生态系统的功能可归因于主要的开口条件维持了盐度梯度,以及随后典型的河口/海洋无脊椎动物类群对整体生态系统功能的巨大贡献。相比之下,uMdloti 河口在长期闭口条件下以淡水/咸水类群为主,平均系统活性(1084-2289 毫克碳 m-2 d-1)的季节性变化较大,对微藻的依赖程度普遍较高(D:H <1.26),表明对外部扰动的适应能力下降。在这项研究中,一次河口决口对乌姆洛蒂河口起到了 "生物重置 "的作用,使河口/海洋类群得以招募,生态系统功能得以暂时恢复,这反映在系统循环的增加(FCI >14.05 %)和对微藻依赖的减少(D:H >1.41)上。这些研究结果表明,由于河口类型、人为影响和无脊椎动物群落组成的不同,未来预测的干旱对河口生态系统功能的影响可能会部分针对特定系统。这项研究提供了生态系统级指标与系统内单个类群作用之间的科学联系,是对生物多样性评估和生态系统状态评价的宝贵补充。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic insights for sustainable tourism development in Kashmir Valley: SWOT and QSPM analysis 克什米尔山谷旅游业可持续发展的战略见解:SWOT 和 QSPM 分析
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101092
Promoting sustainable tourism entails fostering environmentally responsible growth that endures, achieving a delicate balance between honoring the rich history, preserving culture, and navigating the challenges posed by diverse altitudes in the Kashmir Valley. A knowledge test was created to measure the stakeholders' understanding of sustainable tourism to guide further analysis with the selected stakeholders. Our research delved into this objective by conducting real-world analysis, including questionnaires and interviews with key stakeholders. A Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) was utilized and built on the foundation of the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) framework to drive sustainable tourism effectively. The results underscore the intricate landscape the valley operates within, revealing varied levels of stakeholder satisfaction across different aspects. Understanding these nuanced perspectives is crucial to charting a sustainable course for the region. In this light, the existing strategies aimed at managing the area, with a focal point on promoting sustainable tourism. The emphasis is on recognizing and tackling the challenges while seizing the weaknesses and threats that could impact the industry's reputation for excellent service and environmental stewardship. It is about aligning strategies to ensure a harmonious coexistence between tourism growth and the natural, cultural, and social fabric of this adorable valley.
促进可持续旅游业需要促进对环境负责的持久增长,在尊重丰富的历史、保护文化和应对克什米尔山谷不同海拔所带来的挑战之间实现微妙的平衡。我们设计了一个知识测试来衡量利益相关者对可持续旅游业的理解,以指导与选定利益相关者的进一步分析。我们的研究通过对现实世界进行分析,包括对主要利益相关者进行问卷调查和访谈,深入探讨了这一目标。在 SWOT(优势、劣势、机会和威胁)框架的基础上,采用了定量战略规划矩阵(QSPM),以有效推动可持续旅游业的发展。结果凸显了山谷所处的错综复杂的环境,揭示了利益相关者在不同方面的不同满意度。了解这些微妙的视角对于规划该地区的可持续发展路线至关重要。有鉴于此,现有战略旨在管理该地区,重点是促进可持续旅游业。重点在于认识和应对挑战,同时抓住可能影响旅游业优质服务和环境管理声誉的弱点和威胁。这就是要调整战略,确保旅游业的发展与这一可爱山谷的自然、文化和社会结构和谐共存。
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引用次数: 0
The feasibility of flexible and adaptive green certification in accelerating zero carbon cities 灵活、适应性强的绿色认证在加速零碳城市建设中的可行性
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101091
This research measures the feasibility of using a flexible and adaptative green certification in accelerating the transition toward zero carbon cities. Thus, the EDGE program, a web-based application, is used to evaluate its influence on the number of LEED program certifications in the countries where this web-based application program is applied. A panel dataset of yearly LEED and EDGE-certified buildings numbers is created, and a synthetic control method is implemented for the top five countries for EDGE-certified projects. Counterfactuals are constructed to mimic the number of LEED-certified buildings in a treated country using controls based on countries where no EDGE program is recorded. It can be concluded that the establishment of an EDGE program causes a significant decrease in the number of LEED-certified buildings, especially in Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The result remains robust when performing several robustness analyses. Analysis does not mean that the LEED will be replaced by the EDGE, but that a significant number of new certifications would change over the coming years. While many studies discussed the barriers for the adoption of green certifications, this research highlights the necessity of directing more research to keep up with updated smart tools and applications to increase the proliferation of the green certifications.
本研究衡量了使用灵活、适应性强的绿色认证加速向零碳城市过渡的可行性。因此,我们使用 EDGE 程序(一种基于网络的应用程序)来评估其对 LEED 程序认证数量的影响。我们创建了 LEED 和 EDGE 认证建筑数量的年度面板数据集,并对 EDGE 认证项目最多的五个国家采用了合成控制方法。利用基于没有 EDGE 项目记录的国家的控制方法,构建了反事实,以模拟处理过的国家的 LEED 认证建筑数量。可以得出结论,EDGE 项目的建立导致 LEED 认证建筑数量的显著下降,尤其是在哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁。在进行多项稳健性分析后,结果仍然是稳健的。分析结果并不意味着 LEED 将被 EDGE 所取代,但在未来几年中,大量新认证将发生变化。虽然许多研究都讨论了采用绿色认证的障碍,但本研究强调有必要开展更多研究,以跟上智能工具和应用程序的更新,从而提高绿色认证的普及率。
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引用次数: 0
Does structural change matter for sustainable development in newly industrialized countries? Fresh evidence from a new sustainability indicator 结构变革对新兴工业化国家的可持续发展重要吗?一个新的可持续性指标提供的新证据
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101094
The economic gap between developed and developing economies has been diminishing due to the recent rapid economic growth performance of developing economies. While achieving this swift growth level, developing economies have structurally transformed their economies. However, the impact of this structural change on environmental sustainability remains unclear. Therefore, this study focuses on the impacts of structural change, energy structure, and economic growth on the load capacity factor, a comprehensive sustainability indicator, in newly industrialized countries during 2000–2020. To this end, second-generation panel data techniques, which account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, are used to provide more robust and reliable estimates. The results show that economic growth, structural change, and fossil energy utilization decrease the load capacity factor while renewable energy utilization increases it. These findings underscore the need for energy efficiency and resource-conscious policies that align with environmental sustainability while promoting economic growth, highlighting their crucial role in the future of sustainable development.
由于发展中经济体最近的快速经济增长表现,发达经济体和发展中经济体之间的经济差距正在缩小。在实现快速增长的同时,发展中经济体也实现了经济结构转型。然而,这种结构性变化对环境可持续性的影响仍不明确。因此,本研究重点关注 2000-2020 年间新兴工业化国家的结构变化、能源结构和经济增长对综合可持续发展指标--负荷能力系数的影响。为此,本研究采用了第二代面板数据技术,考虑了横截面依赖性和异质性,以提供更稳健可靠的估计值。结果表明,经济增长、结构变化和化石能源利用率降低了负荷能力系数,而可再生能源利用率提高了负荷能力系数。这些研究结果突出表明,在促进经济增长的同时,还需要制定符合环境可持续性的能源效率和资源意识政策,从而凸显其在未来可持续发展中的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Integration of climate change adaptation into agricultural policies in Nepal: A diagnostic assessment 将气候变化适应纳入尼泊尔农业政策:诊断性评估
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101085
Successful implementation of climate change adaptation (CCA) actions in the agriculture sector requires comprehensive policies that have specifically focused aims and targets. Integration of CCA into agricultural policy can provide an enabling environment for planning and implementing CCA actions in a coordinated way. This work undertook an assessment of the integration of CCA into agricultural policies in Nepal. In total, 23 policies, plans, strategies, and frameworks published over more than two decades were assessed. Content analysis and knowledge mining were conducted based on five proxy criteria: focus, adaptation strategies, institutional setup, financial management, and monitoring and evaluation. The results indicate that the focus of the policies in terms of agricultural adaptation to climate change vary from protection of the environment to climate-smart agriculture. Agroforestry was found to be a highly prioritized CCA action in the documents. Most of the policy documents (16) make provisions for three tiers of institutional setup, while only 10 specifically allocate their required budgets with clear identification of their sources and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms at the national and subnational levels. The results also show that overlapping roles and responsibilities across ministries, the prioritization of adaptation action without quantified outcomes and a low priority being given to climate action—particularly at subnational levels—are major constraints on the implementation of these policies. In light of this, programs, activities, institutions and legal provisions are essential components in achieving the goals and objectives of any policy. So, each policy should have implementable programs and activities, institutional provisions with clearly defined responsibilities and legal provisions to overcome the obstacles.
要在农业部门成功实施气候变化适应行动(CCA),就必须制定具有具体目标和指标的综合政策。将 CCA 纳入农业政策可为协调规划和实施 CCA 行动提供有利环境。这项工作对尼泊尔将共同国家评估纳入农业政策的情况进行了评估。共评估了二十多年来发布的 23 项政策、计划、战略和框架。内容分析和知识挖掘基于五个替代标准进行:重点、适应战略、机构设置、财务管理以及监测和评估。结果表明,农业适应气候变化的政策重点各不相同,从环境保护到气候智能型农业。在这些文件中,农林业被认为是高度优先的共同国家评估行动。大多数政策文件(16 份)都规定了三级机构设置,但只有 10 份文件具体分配了所需预算,并明确说明了预算来源以及国家和国家以下各级的监测和评估机制。研究结果还显示,各部委的角色和责任重叠、适应行动的优先次序没有量化结果、气候行动的优先次序较低--尤其是在国家以下层面--是这些政策实施的主要制约因素。有鉴于此,计划、活动、机构和法律规定是实现任何政策目标的重要组成部分。因此,每项政策都应该有可实施的计划和活动、职责明确的制度规定以及克服障碍的法律规定。
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引用次数: 0
Aligning stakeholder goals: Implications for inclusive urban sustainability 协调利益相关者的目标:对包容性城市可持续发展的影响
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101082
The implementation of local sustainability policies is often hampered by differences between multi-level policy goals and the development priorities of local stakeholders. This study evaluates how an assessment of the differences between public, national, and international sustainable development priorities, such as the SDGs, might inform inclusive sustainability policies at the local level. Specifically, this paper aims to demonstrate the use of multi-stakeholder goal-alignment assessment through content analysis and public opinion surveys administered in three cities across Henan Province, China. The findings 1) draw from the systematic assessment of stakeholder priorities to identify three typologies of goal-alignment or misalignment that have implications for the design of initiatives that offer co-benefits and for the mediation of trade-offs in meeting sustainability goals, and 2) demonstrate an integrative approach to developing urban sustainability policies and programs using both top-down prescriptive sustainability goals and human-centered experiential priorities.
地方可持续发展政策的实施往往受到多层次政策目标与地方利益相关者发展重点之间差异的阻碍。本研究评估了公众、国家和国际可持续发展优先事项(如可持续发展目标)之间的差异评估如何为地方层面的包容性可持续发展政策提供信息。具体而言,本文旨在通过在中国河南省三个城市开展的内容分析和民意调查,展示如何使用多利益相关方目标一致性评估。研究结果包括:1)通过对利益相关者优先事项的系统性评估,确定了目标一致或不一致的三种类型,这些类型对设计提供共同利益的倡议以及在实现可持续发展目标过程中的权衡具有影响;2)展示了一种综合方法,即同时使用自上而下的规定性可持续发展目标和以人为本的体验性优先事项来制定城市可持续发展政策和计划。
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引用次数: 0
Attribution of environmental outcomes to climate change: Perceptions of coastal communities in the Caribbean 将环境结果归因于气候变化:加勒比沿海社区的看法
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101088
Attribution of environmental outcomes to climate change is a live debate in scholarly and policy circles. Non-scientific attribution by the lay public has value for enriching the discourse, engagements, and decisions on loss and damage, adaptation and mitigation, communication strategies, and the science-policy interface from local to international levels. There is a need for context-specific studies on perceived climate attribution by the lay public. Unlike the few previous studies that focused on attribution of extreme events to climate change by the lay public, the current paper assessed the key compositional and contextual factors that influence the attribution of environmental outcomes with slow onset to climate change. This study surveyed 441 households in eight small coastal communities in three Caribbean countries and applied a generalized linear regression model with a complementary log-log link to assess the relationship between compositional and contextual factors that influence perceived linkage between climate change and environmental outcome. At the bivariate level, the results showed that ethnicity, marital status, household head highest education, household income, and community of living were significant predictors of the likelihood of the perceived linkage between climate change and worsening environmental outcome. At the multivariate level, when all factors have been accounted for, we found that respondents with higher education were 160% more likely to indicate that climate change has adverse effects on environmental outcomes. Respondents with 10 or more years of experience in their present occupation were 73% more likely to suggest a linkage between climate change and worse environmental outcomes. Other strong predictors included income, ethnicity and community of residence. The perceived relationship between climate change and environmental outcomes differed systematically based on the compositional and contextual attributes of respondents. Several significant relationships at the bivariate level persisted at the multivariate level, indicating that the perceived linkages are robust and entrenched. It is concluded that there are heterogeneities in the perceived relationship between climate change and environmental outcomes based on the compositional and contextual factors of the households. Higher education and longer experience in the same occupation contribute significantly to climate attribution by the lay public.
将环境结果归因于气候变化是学术界和政策界的一场辩论。非专业公众的非科学归因对于丰富有关损失和损害、适应和减缓、传播战略以及从地方到国际层面的科学政策互动的讨论、参与和决策具有重要价值。有必要针对具体情况研究非专业公众对气候归因的看法。与以往关注普通公众将极端事件归因于气候变化的少数研究不同,本文评估了影响将缓慢发生的环境结果归因于气候变化的关键构成和背景因素。本研究调查了三个加勒比国家八个沿海小社区的 441 个家庭,并采用了一个具有对数-对数互补联系的广义线性回归模型,以评估影响气候变化与环境结果之间感知联系的构成因素和背景因素之间的关系。结果表明,在二元层面上,种族、婚姻状况、户主的最高教育程度、家庭收入和生活社区是预测气候变化与环境恶化之间联系的重要因素。在多变量水平上,当所有因素都考虑在内时,我们发现受教育程度较高的受访者表示气候变化对环境结果有不利影响的可能性要高出 160%。从事目前职业 10 年或以上的受访者认为气候变化与环境后果恶化之间存在联系的可能性要高出 73%。其他强有力的预测因素包括收入、种族和居住社区。根据受访者的构成和背景属性,气候变化与环境结果之间的关系认知存在系统性差异。在二元水平上的一些重要关系在多元水平上持续存在,这表明所感知的联系是稳固和根深蒂固的。结论是,根据家庭的组成和背景因素,气候变化与环境结果之间的感知关系存在异质性。教育程度越高、从事同一职业的时间越长,对非专业公众的气候归因越有帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling and scenario building for climate change adaptation planning: The case of large mining in Chile 气候变化适应规划的建模和情景构建:智利大型矿业案例
IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101089
The mining sector in Chile is a strategic industrial sector for the country. Existing evidence shows that it faces several serious climate change threats; precipitation and flooding, droughts, heatwaves, among others. This scene put pressure on the government and the industry to develop efficient adaptation plans. To date, adaptation plans are designed under the rather linear paradigm of predict-then-act or the impact-lea approach as they are characterized in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Literature and the IPCC reports have identified the limits of those planning paradigms showing the relevance of adaptation barriers or enabling conditions, which should be considered as intrinsic part of the planning problem.
In methodological terms, planning for climate change risks implies an enriched adaptation plan problem, previously characterized only by an operative climate risk management, that must be described at the beginning of the decision-making process. In this study, our objective is to contribute to the climate change adaptation planning of large-scale mining in Chile. The study is based on a climate change adaptation planning approach that overcomes the limitations of the current paradigm. In doing so, we start from the understanding that what emerges as an object of analysis from adding to the climate risks their enabling managing conditions is a social system. The social system whose function is that social climate risk management takes place. Therefore, we call it the Social Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change (SMSACC). As such the SMSACC should be the adaptation planning key object.
In the first place we modeled that system applying a qualitative system methodology and then we developed it into a mathematical model based on graph theory, in particular the signed digraphs. This allows us to simulate two types of intervention on the enlarged object of analysis of the large mining adaptation plan. On the one hand, we carried out a future scenario analysis based on prospective tools which enables us to understand the system's answer to different future behavior of its environment, including climate change. On the other hand, we simulate different strategic interventions options on the system, which facilitates understanding the system's reaction under different public policy approaches.
The modeling and simulation results provided an insightful understanding of the dilemma of social adaptation management of large mining in Chile, and as such they are useful input for the planning process.
智利的采矿业是该国的战略工业部门。现有证据表明,它面临着几种严重的气候变化威胁:降水和洪水、干旱、热浪等。这给政府和行业带来了制定高效适应计划的压力。迄今为止,适应计划都是按照预测--然后行动或影响--再影响的线性模式设计的,正如 IPCC 第 5 次评估报告(AR5)所描述的那样。文献和 IPCC 报告指出了这些规划范式的局限性,显示了适应障碍或有利条件的相关性,这些障碍或有利条件应被视为规划问题的固有组成部分。从方法论的角度来看,气候变化风险规划意味着一个丰富的适应规划问题,以前仅以可操作的气候风险管理为特征,必须在决策过程之初对其进行描述。在本研究中,我们的目标是为智利大规模采矿业的气候变化适应规划做出贡献。本研究以气候变化适应规划方法为基础,克服了当前模式的局限性。在这一过程中,我们的出发点是:在气候风险中加入有利的管理条件,作为分析对象的是一个社会系统。这个社会系统的功能是进行社会气候风险管理。因此,我们称之为适应气候变化的社会管理系统(SMSACC)。因此,SMSACC 应成为适应规划的关键对象。首先,我们采用定性系统方法对该系统进行建模,然后将其发展为基于图论,特别是符号数字图的数学模型。这样,我们就可以对大型采矿适应性规划的扩大分析对象进行两种干预模拟。一方面,我们基于前瞻性工具进行了未来情景分析,这使我们能够了解系统对包括气候变化在内的环境未来不同行为的反应。另一方面,我们模拟了对该系统的不同战略干预方案,这有助于了解该系统在不同公共政策方法下的反应。建模和模拟结果让我们对智利大型矿业的社会适应管理困境有了深刻的理解,因此,它们是规划过程中的有用输入。
{"title":"Modeling and scenario building for climate change adaptation planning: The case of large mining in Chile","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mining sector in Chile is a strategic industrial sector for the country. Existing evidence shows that it faces several serious climate change threats; precipitation and flooding, droughts, heatwaves, among others. This scene put pressure on the government and the industry to develop efficient adaptation plans. To date, adaptation plans are designed under the rather linear paradigm of predict-then-act or the impact-lea approach as they are characterized in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Literature and the IPCC reports have identified the limits of those planning paradigms showing the relevance of adaptation barriers or enabling conditions, which should be considered as intrinsic part of the planning problem.</div><div>In methodological terms, planning for climate change risks implies an enriched adaptation plan problem, previously characterized only by an operative climate risk management, that must be described at the beginning of the decision-making process. In this study, our objective is to contribute to the climate change adaptation planning of large-scale mining in Chile. The study is based on a climate change adaptation planning approach that overcomes the limitations of the current paradigm. In doing so, we start from the understanding that what emerges as an object of analysis from adding to the climate risks their enabling managing conditions is a social system. The social system whose function is that social climate risk management takes place. Therefore, we call it the Social Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change (SMSACC). As such the SMSACC should be the adaptation planning key object.</div><div>In the first place we modeled that system applying a qualitative system methodology and then we developed it into a mathematical model based on graph theory, in particular the signed digraphs. This allows us to simulate two types of intervention on the enlarged object of analysis of the large mining adaptation plan. On the one hand, we carried out a future scenario analysis based on prospective tools which enables us to understand the system's answer to different future behavior of its environment, including climate change. On the other hand, we simulate different strategic interventions options on the system, which facilitates understanding the system's reaction under different public policy approaches.</div><div>The modeling and simulation results provided an insightful understanding of the dilemma of social adaptation management of large mining in Chile, and as such they are useful input for the planning process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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Environmental Development
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