Pub Date : 2025-04-23DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101220
Carmen Díaz-López , Antonio Serrano-Jiménez , Ángela Barrios-Padura , Carlos Rosa-Jiménez
This study addresses the management of public social housing in Europe, focusing on sustainability and the circular economy. It highlights that the construction sector is responsible for a large share of the European Union's energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a shift towards regeneration of existing housing stock instead of urban sprawl is proposed. The research presents an innovative methodology based on indicators such as Level(s) that allows to diagnose and characterize the public social housing stock. This methodology is divided into several phases, including the identification of scales of application, sustainability criteria, management indicators, and diagnostic activities. Relevant indicators are identified at different scales (regional, local, neighbourhood and building) to evaluate social, economic and technical aspects. In addition, a case study was carried out in a social housing neighbourhood in Baena, Spain, where these indicators were applied to assess the current situation and the need for improvement. The paper concludes that this methodology helps inventory the public housing stock and allows for more efficient and sustainable management aligned with European guidelines such as the European Green Pact and the New European Bauhaus.
{"title":"Enhancing public social housing management: A Level(s)-based approach for European sustainability goals","authors":"Carmen Díaz-López , Antonio Serrano-Jiménez , Ángela Barrios-Padura , Carlos Rosa-Jiménez","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the management of public social housing in Europe, focusing on sustainability and the circular economy. It highlights that the construction sector is responsible for a large share of the European Union's energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a shift towards regeneration of existing housing stock instead of urban sprawl is proposed. The research presents an innovative methodology based on indicators such as Level(s) that allows to diagnose and characterize the public social housing stock. This methodology is divided into several phases, including the identification of scales of application, sustainability criteria, management indicators, and diagnostic activities. Relevant indicators are identified at different scales (regional, local, neighbourhood and building) to evaluate social, economic and technical aspects. In addition, a case study was carried out in a social housing neighbourhood in Baena, Spain, where these indicators were applied to assess the current situation and the need for improvement. The paper concludes that this methodology helps inventory the public housing stock and allows for more efficient and sustainable management aligned with European guidelines such as the European Green Pact and the New European Bauhaus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101220"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-17DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101218
Cristiano A. Turim, Biagio F. Giannetti, Feni Agostinho, Cecilia M.V.B. Almeida
Amid escalating global concerns about environmental degradation and the pressing need to improve the nutritional quality of diets to meet the demands of a rapidly growing world population, the transformation of food systems has introduced social, economic, and environmental challenges. To address these issues, emergy synthesis, an accumulated energy measure considering environmental and anthropogenic transformation processes, offers a valuable scientific model for simulating and evaluating the environmental impacts of various dietary patterns. This approach facilitates the exploration of different scenarios, enabling the identification of sustainable solutions. The analysis provides comprehensive insights into diets that balance environmental sustainability and affordability by assessing resource use, environmental impacts, and economic costs associated with seven distinct dietary scenarios. The findings underscore that diets centered around meat consumption demand significantly higher energy inputs than plant-based diets and exceed established planetary thresholds for GHG emissions. This evidence highlights an urgent need to shift dietary patterns away from meat-centric diets to more effectively combat climate change. While the study found similar levels of agricultural land use across different diets, it revealed that plant-based diets significantly contribute to water consumption. These outcomes underscore the importance of making targeted and localized dietary adjustments to enhance the sustainability of food consumption. By minimizing the environmental load while simultaneously meeting the nutritional needs of an expanding population, these adjustments can play a crucial role in fostering a more sustainable interaction between human activities and the natural environment. The research findings have broader implications for improving human-environment interactions. They inform strategies for the various aspects of sustainable and healthy diets, focusing on their environmental support through emergy synthesis, which evaluates resource use, economic costs, and the associated environmental effects of different dietary patterns. In essence, this systematic approach to dietary planning, control, and monitoring is a pivotal measure in comprehensively and sustainably addressing environmental issues.
{"title":"Exploring the complexity of sustainable and healthy diets","authors":"Cristiano A. Turim, Biagio F. Giannetti, Feni Agostinho, Cecilia M.V.B. Almeida","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101218","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101218","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid escalating global concerns about environmental degradation and the pressing need to improve the nutritional quality of diets to meet the demands of a rapidly growing world population, the transformation of food systems has introduced social, economic, and environmental challenges. To address these issues, emergy synthesis, an accumulated energy measure considering environmental and anthropogenic transformation processes, offers a valuable scientific model for simulating and evaluating the environmental impacts of various dietary patterns. This approach facilitates the exploration of different scenarios, enabling the identification of sustainable solutions. The analysis provides comprehensive insights into diets that balance environmental sustainability and affordability by assessing resource use, environmental impacts, and economic costs associated with seven distinct dietary scenarios. The findings underscore that diets centered around meat consumption demand significantly higher energy inputs than plant-based diets and exceed established planetary thresholds for GHG emissions. This evidence highlights an urgent need to shift dietary patterns away from meat-centric diets to more effectively combat climate change. While the study found similar levels of agricultural land use across different diets, it revealed that plant-based diets significantly contribute to water consumption. These outcomes underscore the importance of making targeted and localized dietary adjustments to enhance the sustainability of food consumption. By minimizing the environmental load while simultaneously meeting the nutritional needs of an expanding population, these adjustments can play a crucial role in fostering a more sustainable interaction between human activities and the natural environment. The research findings have broader implications for improving human-environment interactions. They inform strategies for the various aspects of sustainable and healthy diets, focusing on their environmental support through emergy synthesis, which evaluates resource use, economic costs, and the associated environmental effects of different dietary patterns. In essence, this systematic approach to dietary planning, control, and monitoring is a pivotal measure in comprehensively and sustainably addressing environmental issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101218"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vehicular polluter is one of the major contributors to air pollution. Emission norms and shifting to clean fuels are the major policy directions in achieving the vehicular emission reduction. In India, Bharat Stage Emission Standards have been implemented to reduce the vehicle exhaust emissions, alongside the promotion of alternative fuels. Further, the use of adopting clean fuels remains a practical and effective approach to reduce vehicular emissions. In the present study, the impact of the use of ethanol-blended fuel and the co-benefit of emission standards on vehicular emissions is assessed and compared with the emissions from petrol, diesel and CNG vehicles. The analysis reveals that CO and PM2.5 emissions are unavoidable from the ethanol-blended vehicles, but the NOx emissions are controlled irrespective of the BS norms. Ethanol-blending and CNG fuels show comparatively lesser emissions than the other fuels. The findings indicate that ethanol may be a good renewable fuel choice for cutting emissions without having to eliminate vehicles right once. An affordable way to move toward cleaner mobility would be to combine ethanol and retrofit older BS-III and BS-IV vehicles with cutting-edge aftertreatment technology seen in BS-VI engines. Norms like the EURO-VII plan, which imposes consistent emission limitations on various fuel types, are in line with fuel- and technology-neutral policies. The study calls for an integrated approach of ‘clean fuels’ and ‘clean technologies’ to achieve vehicle emission reduction targets.
{"title":"Stimulation of ethanol-blending and emission standards to combat vehicular pollution in India","authors":"Sandhiya Lakshmanan, Ranjana Aggarwal, Anupama Upadhayay","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vehicular polluter is one of the major contributors to air pollution. Emission norms and shifting to clean fuels are the major policy directions in achieving the vehicular emission reduction. In India, Bharat Stage Emission Standards have been implemented to reduce the vehicle exhaust emissions, alongside the promotion of alternative fuels. Further, the use of adopting clean fuels remains a practical and effective approach to reduce vehicular emissions. In the present study, the impact of the use of ethanol-blended fuel and the co-benefit of emission standards on vehicular emissions is assessed and compared with the emissions from petrol, diesel and CNG vehicles. The analysis reveals that CO and PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions are unavoidable from the ethanol-blended vehicles, but the NO<sub>x</sub> emissions are controlled irrespective of the BS norms. Ethanol-blending and CNG fuels show comparatively lesser emissions than the other fuels. The findings indicate that ethanol may be a good renewable fuel choice for cutting emissions without having to eliminate vehicles right once. An affordable way to move toward cleaner mobility would be to combine ethanol and retrofit older BS-III and BS-IV vehicles with cutting-edge aftertreatment technology seen in BS-VI engines. Norms like the EURO-VII plan, which imposes consistent emission limitations on various fuel types, are in line with fuel- and technology-neutral policies. The study calls for an integrated approach of ‘clean fuels’ and ‘clean technologies’ to achieve vehicle emission reduction targets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101219"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143843166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-11DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101217
Alireza Keshavarz , Zakariya Farajzadeh
The negative impacts of climate change in Iran are coupled with considerable ecological deficits, which are expected to worsen under unfavorable climatic conditions. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on ecological variables using a dynamic and novel Input-Output model. The applied data included the Iranian Input-Output table, ecological footprint, and damage matrix. The findings indicated that Iran's fragile economic growth is associated with a significant ecological footprint and a concerning ecological deficit. Based on the simulation results, energy consumption constitutes approximately 75–76 % of the overall ecological footprint, whereas the cropland footprint contributes approximately 10–12 %. The annual growth rate of these components, which typically fluctuates around 2.5 %, spans a broader range of −0.5 %–1.8 % owing to the influence of climate change. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the total ecological footprint is expected to surpass 8 gha (global hectares) by 2060. However, under climate change options, the majority will likely be confined within the range of 5–6.5 gha. The study revealed an increase in ecological deficits, especially when considering mild climate variations. The ecological coordination coefficient experienced a decrease, indicating a disparity between economic development and the state of the ecological environment. Sectoral analysis showed that approximately 70 % of the ecological footprint originates from the services sector, whereas the agricultural and manufacturing sectors each contribute 8–9.5 %. The findings also demonstrated that the shift from agricultural to non-agricultural activities increases the ecological footprint intensity of agricultural practices while significantly reducing it for other sectors, particularly services.
{"title":"Exploring the impacts of climate change on ecological footprint in Iran: A dynamic input-output analysis","authors":"Alireza Keshavarz , Zakariya Farajzadeh","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101217","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101217","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The negative impacts of climate change in Iran are coupled with considerable ecological deficits, which are expected to worsen under unfavorable climatic conditions. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on ecological variables using a dynamic and novel Input-Output model. The applied data included the Iranian Input-Output table, ecological footprint, and damage matrix. The findings indicated that Iran's fragile economic growth is associated with a significant ecological footprint and a concerning ecological deficit. Based on the simulation results, energy consumption constitutes approximately 75–76 % of the overall ecological footprint, whereas the cropland footprint contributes approximately 10–12 %. The annual growth rate of these components, which typically fluctuates around 2.5 %, spans a broader range of −0.5 %–1.8 % owing to the influence of climate change. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the total ecological footprint is expected to surpass 8 gha (global hectares) by 2060. However, under climate change options, the majority will likely be confined within the range of 5–6.5 gha. The study revealed an increase in ecological deficits, especially when considering mild climate variations. The ecological coordination coefficient experienced a decrease, indicating a disparity between economic development and the state of the ecological environment. Sectoral analysis showed that approximately 70 % of the ecological footprint originates from the services sector, whereas the agricultural and manufacturing sectors each contribute 8–9.5 %. The findings also demonstrated that the shift from agricultural to non-agricultural activities increases the ecological footprint intensity of agricultural practices while significantly reducing it for other sectors, particularly services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101217"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143843096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-11DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101212
Karwan Shanazi, Mousa Aazami
Achieving a proper balance between utilizing services and protecting resources guides society toward the concept of the wise use of wetlands, which is a sustainable approach to supporting livelihoods dependent on wetland ecosystems. This research evaluates the sustainability of assets and the diversity of wetland livelihoods in one of the most important wetlands in western Iran, aiming to develop protection and livelihood goals and generalize its findings. The study used a mixed-methods approach (quantitative and qualitative), based on a literature review, field observations, and a survey of resident households (335 household heads around the wetland), conducted through questionnaires and focus group discussions. The results show the fragility and unsustainability of livelihood assets in the financial (0.287) and natural (0.303) dimensions after the design and implementation of the Integrated Zarivar Wetland Management Plan, which has imposed restrictions on local people's access to wetland services. Based on the results, the social, human, and physical dimensions demonstrate moderate levels of sustainability. Nearly 70 percent of regional households depend on wetland services for their livelihoods, with the highest dependency (46.03 %) on agricultural and animal-raising activities. The level of livelihood diversity showed that 41 percent of families had only one source of income, which does not support positive livelihood outcomes. As a result, vulnerability will be aggravated in the face of natural and human-induced shocks. The Tobit model estimation results indicate that gender, education, the household head's primary occupation, and access to markets are the main determinants of livelihood diversity in the region. The imbalance and inflexibility between conservation and livelihood development goals have jeopardized livelihoods and could lead to the degradation and unsustainable use of the ecosystem in the long term. Therefore, national and international policies and programs, along with wetland-specific initiatives, are necessary to sustain wetland services not only for conservation purposes but also to support local livelihoods (through diversification) and, consequently, reduce vulnerability. These findings offer actionable insights for enhancing wetland conservation efforts and promoting sustainable livelihood development.
{"title":"Sustainability and diversity of Wetland livelihoods: The case of livelihoods around the Zarivar Wetland, Iran","authors":"Karwan Shanazi, Mousa Aazami","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101212","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving a proper balance between utilizing services and protecting resources guides society toward the concept of the wise use of wetlands, which is a sustainable approach to supporting livelihoods dependent on wetland ecosystems. This research evaluates the sustainability of assets and the diversity of wetland livelihoods in one of the most important wetlands in western Iran, aiming to develop protection and livelihood goals and generalize its findings. The study used a mixed-methods approach (quantitative and qualitative), based on a literature review, field observations, and a survey of resident households (335 household heads around the wetland), conducted through questionnaires and focus group discussions. The results show the fragility and unsustainability of livelihood assets in the financial (0.287) and natural (0.303) dimensions after the design and implementation of the Integrated Zarivar Wetland Management Plan, which has imposed restrictions on local people's access to wetland services. Based on the results, the social, human, and physical dimensions demonstrate moderate levels of sustainability. Nearly 70 percent of regional households depend on wetland services for their livelihoods, with the highest dependency (46.03 %) on agricultural and animal-raising activities. The level of livelihood diversity showed that 41 percent of families had only one source of income, which does not support positive livelihood outcomes. As a result, vulnerability will be aggravated in the face of natural and human-induced shocks. The Tobit model estimation results indicate that gender, education, the household head's primary occupation, and access to markets are the main determinants of livelihood diversity in the region. The imbalance and inflexibility between conservation and livelihood development goals have jeopardized livelihoods and could lead to the degradation and unsustainable use of the ecosystem in the long term. Therefore, national and international policies and programs, along with wetland-specific initiatives, are necessary to sustain wetland services not only for conservation purposes but also to support local livelihoods (through diversification) and, consequently, reduce vulnerability. These findings offer actionable insights for enhancing wetland conservation efforts and promoting sustainable livelihood development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101212"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The South African National Parks situated within the Savanna biome face escalating threats from intensifying heatwaves and extreme heat, driven by climate change. This study examines the trends and the impacts of extreme heat events in Mapungubwe and Kruger National Parks using a mixed methods approach, integrating temperature data with surveys and interviews involving park personnel and management. The study uniquely focuses on the interplay between extreme heat and tourism in Savanna national parks, an underexplored area in climate and tourism research. The results reveal a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of extreme heat days during the warmest quarter in Kruger National Park, while no significant trend was observed in Mapungubwe. However, extreme heat manifests in several negative impacts, including heat-induced stress and reduced operational efficiency among park employees. Ecological ramifications, inclusive of wildlife mortalities and declining avian populations were reported. Tourist visitation and recreational activities were adversely affected, with notable shifts in visitation patterns. A correlation between exceptionally high temperatures and heightened water and energy consumption also emerged. The study highlights the value of combining quantitative temperature trend analysis with qualitative stakeholder insights for a holistic understanding of extreme heat impacts. Recommendations include implementing heat-resilient infrastructure, adjusting work schedules for vulnerable employees, and adopting proactive adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of extreme heat. These findings offer critical insights for enhancing the resilience of national parks and sustaining nature-based tourism in the context of a warming climate.
{"title":"Extreme heat trends and impacts in Savanna national parks of South Africa","authors":"Nthivhiseni Mashula, Lazarus Chapungu, Godwell Nhamo","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The South African National Parks situated within the Savanna biome face escalating threats from intensifying heatwaves and extreme heat, driven by climate change. This study examines the trends and the impacts of extreme heat events in Mapungubwe and Kruger National Parks using a mixed methods approach, integrating temperature data with surveys and interviews involving park personnel and management. The study uniquely focuses on the interplay between extreme heat and tourism in Savanna national parks, an underexplored area in climate and tourism research. The results reveal a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of extreme heat days during the warmest quarter in Kruger National Park, while no significant trend was observed in Mapungubwe. However, extreme heat manifests in several negative impacts, including heat-induced stress and reduced operational efficiency among park employees. Ecological ramifications, inclusive of wildlife mortalities and declining avian populations were reported. Tourist visitation and recreational activities were adversely affected, with notable shifts in visitation patterns. A correlation between exceptionally high temperatures and heightened water and energy consumption also emerged. The study highlights the value of combining quantitative temperature trend analysis with qualitative stakeholder insights for a holistic understanding of extreme heat impacts. Recommendations include implementing heat-resilient infrastructure, adjusting work schedules for vulnerable employees, and adopting proactive adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of extreme heat. These findings offer critical insights for enhancing the resilience of national parks and sustaining nature-based tourism in the context of a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101216"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-04DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101214
Willem A. Landman , Anthony G. Barnston
The production of operational seasonal forecasts in South Africa began in the early 1990s, as South African modellers published numerous papers describing the research and development supporting these forecast systems. While this effort focused largely on seasonal rainfall and temperature predictability over southern Africa, work has also gone into predictions of global sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), including predictions for the central Pacific Ocean, and particularly the ENSO-related Niño3.4 region. Here we present verification statistics of archived real-time Niño3.4 SST forecasts from multi-model forecasting systems developed respectively at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and at the University of Pretoria, both based in South Africa. These forecasting systems used forecasts produced by fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered in the USA, and also by statistical models developed locally. Archived Niño3.4 SST forecast data are available continuously from 2015. The verification presented here covers a 9-year period beginning with forecasts for the 2015/16 El Niño event and ending with the 2023/24 El Niño event. In general, Niño3.4 forecast skill is limited during the boreal spring months and optimized during the boreal winter period when forecast variance is also largest. During boreal winter, probabilistic forecasts are able to discriminate between the El Niño, neutral and La Niña ENSO phases. Predictability of El Niño events is found to be highest of the three phases, with the lowest predictability for ENSO-neutral. Moreover, probability forecasts for El Niño and La Niña events are found to be mostly under-confident for high probability forecasts, and probabilities for neutral events are overestimated. A potential improvement in the probabilistic forecasts may be achieved by designing the climatological frequencies of the three forecast ENSO categories to match the observational definition based on ± 0.5 °C cutoffs.
{"title":"Verification of operational Niño3.4 SST forecasts produced in South Africa since the 2015 El Niño event","authors":"Willem A. Landman , Anthony G. Barnston","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The production of operational seasonal forecasts in South Africa began in the early 1990s, as South African modellers published numerous papers describing the research and development supporting these forecast systems. While this effort focused largely on seasonal rainfall and temperature predictability over southern Africa, work has also gone into predictions of <em>global</em> sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), including predictions for the central Pacific Ocean, and particularly the ENSO-related Niño3.4 region. Here we present verification statistics of archived real-time Niño3.4 SST forecasts from multi-model forecasting systems developed respectively at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and at the University of Pretoria, both based in South Africa. These forecasting systems used forecasts produced by fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered in the USA, and also by statistical models developed locally. Archived Niño3.4 SST forecast data are available continuously from 2015. The verification presented here covers a 9-year period beginning with forecasts for the 2015/16 El Niño event and ending with the 2023/24 El Niño event. In general, Niño3.4 forecast skill is limited during the boreal spring months and optimized during the boreal winter period when forecast variance is also largest. During boreal winter, probabilistic forecasts are able to discriminate between the El Niño, neutral and La Niña ENSO phases. Predictability of El Niño events is found to be highest of the three phases, with the lowest predictability for ENSO-neutral. Moreover, probability forecasts for El Niño and La Niña events are found to be mostly under-confident for high probability forecasts, and probabilities for neutral events are overestimated. A potential improvement in the probabilistic forecasts may be achieved by designing the climatological frequencies of the three forecast ENSO categories to match the observational definition based on ± 0.5 °C cutoffs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101214"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-03DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101215
Pan Gao , Jianhui Li , Xu Zhao
The accumulation of floating debris in the reservoir areas of hydropower projects has severely impacted both the ecological environment and shipping safety. During the current floating debris collection, information asymmetry among different governance entities has rendered the floating debris recovery mechanism less effective. However, the public supervision mechanism can be a practical way to reduce this information gap. Therefore, this paper builds a four - party stochastic evolutionary game model involving local government, dam operator, clearing enterprises, and the public to explore an effective public - participation approach. The research findings are as follows: Political participation can stimulate the public's willingness to supervise floating debris recovery in the short term, and continuously strengthening environmental protection awareness can promote the transformation of the public to daily participation. Local government and dam operator hold the "levers" of incentives. By precisely and appropriately increasing the recognition and rewards for public supervision, the public can be encouraged to participate actively. Conversely, it will lead to the sluggish operation of the system. Public participation not only helps with supervision, but also enhances the resilience of the recycling system. However, it is necessary to reasonably control the costs of rewards and supervision to avoid undermining the stability of the system. Local government, by safeguarding the rights and interests of the public and shaping a favorable reputation ecosystem, can not only exert reverse pressure on recycling enterprises to make them act in a standardized way, but also stimulate the internal motivation of the public.
{"title":"How to promote public participation in the recycling of floating debris in the reservoir area of hydropower projects? A stochastic quadripartite evolutionary game analysis","authors":"Pan Gao , Jianhui Li , Xu Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The accumulation of floating debris in the reservoir areas of hydropower projects has severely impacted both the ecological environment and shipping safety. During the current floating debris collection, information asymmetry among different governance entities has rendered the floating debris recovery mechanism less effective. However, the public supervision mechanism can be a practical way to reduce this information gap. Therefore, this paper builds a four - party stochastic evolutionary game model involving local government, dam operator, clearing enterprises, and the public to explore an effective public - participation approach. The research findings are as follows: Political participation can stimulate the public's willingness to supervise floating debris recovery in the short term, and continuously strengthening environmental protection awareness can promote the transformation of the public to daily participation. Local government and dam operator hold the \"levers\" of incentives. By precisely and appropriately increasing the recognition and rewards for public supervision, the public can be encouraged to participate actively. Conversely, it will lead to the sluggish operation of the system. Public participation not only helps with supervision, but also enhances the resilience of the recycling system. However, it is necessary to reasonably control the costs of rewards and supervision to avoid undermining the stability of the system. Local government, by safeguarding the rights and interests of the public and shaping a favorable reputation ecosystem, can not only exert reverse pressure on recycling enterprises to make them act in a standardized way, but also stimulate the internal motivation of the public.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101215"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101213
Lloyd JS. Baiyegunhi, Lerato E. Phali, Ayodeji O. Ogunleke
Assessing the economic impact of climate change on households reliant on non-timber forest products (NTFPs) at the regional level is crucial for informing effective adaptation policies. This study examines the effects of climate change on net NTFP income using cross-sectional data from 240 rural female-headed households across six villages in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Applying the Ricardian model, the analysis reveals that net NTFP income is highly sensitive to climatic, socio-economic, and institutional factors, with temperature and rainfall fluctuations posing significant risks. Marginal impact analysis indicates that higher summer temperatures and rainfall increase annual net NTFP revenue by R157 (USD 9) and R6 (USD 0.33) per household, respectively, while rising winter temperatures and rainfall reduce revenue by R215 (USD 12) and R9 (USD 0.50), underscoring seasonal climate effects. Future climate simulations project relatively small overall impacts, with estimated income changes ranging from −10 % to 7 %. Under a moderate IPCC scenario (2 °C temperature increase, 5 % rainfall reduction), net NTFP income is expected to decline by R187 (USD 10), or 2.11 %. A more severe CanESM scenario (3.5 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) predicts a 5.54 % decline (R490 or USD 27), while the most extreme GFDL scenario (4 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) projects a 5.86 % decrease (R519 or USD 29). These findings highlight the need for improved climate monitoring, adaptive strategies, and sustainable NTFP management to support rural livelihoods in climate-sensitive regions.
{"title":"Economic impact of climate change on NTFP income in female-headed households: A Ricardian model approach","authors":"Lloyd JS. Baiyegunhi, Lerato E. Phali, Ayodeji O. Ogunleke","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the economic impact of climate change on households reliant on non-timber forest products (NTFPs) at the regional level is crucial for informing effective adaptation policies. This study examines the effects of climate change on net NTFP income using cross-sectional data from 240 rural female-headed households across six villages in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Applying the Ricardian model, the analysis reveals that net NTFP income is highly sensitive to climatic, socio-economic, and institutional factors, with temperature and rainfall fluctuations posing significant risks. Marginal impact analysis indicates that higher summer temperatures and rainfall increase annual net NTFP revenue by R157 (USD 9) and R6 (USD 0.33) per household, respectively, while rising winter temperatures and rainfall reduce revenue by R215 (USD 12) and R9 (USD 0.50), underscoring seasonal climate effects. Future climate simulations project relatively small overall impacts, with estimated income changes ranging from −10 % to 7 %. Under a moderate IPCC scenario (2 °C temperature increase, 5 % rainfall reduction), net NTFP income is expected to decline by R187 (USD 10), or 2.11 %. A more severe CanESM scenario (3.5 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) predicts a 5.54 % decline (R490 or USD 27), while the most extreme GFDL scenario (4 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) projects a 5.86 % decrease (R519 or USD 29). These findings highlight the need for improved climate monitoring, adaptive strategies, and sustainable NTFP management to support rural livelihoods in climate-sensitive regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101213"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-28DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101209
Elisa Biagetti , Miguel Viegas , Angelo Martella , Silvio Franco , Sara Moreno Pires
Agricultural activity is simultaneously a supplier and consumer of biocapacity. In this sense, the methodology based on the Ecological Footprint and biocapacity is particularly useful for evaluating the environmental sustainability of agricultural practices.
This article aims to assess the environmental sustainability of Portuguese national and municipal agriculture systems (cropland and livestock) by a synthetic indicator (Ecological Balance) applied to the 278 municipalities of mainland Portugal, based on the Ecological Footprint approach. After identifying regional clusters through a spatial data analysis, the article uses a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the relationship between the environmental sustainability of agricultural practices and the distribution of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) support in Portugal.
The Ecological Balance of Portuguese agriculture is globally negative. However, it is based on great regional heterogeneity. Profitability negatively affects the environmental performance of agriculture. As a worrying element, the results point to a negative relationship between the support of the CAP and the agricultural Ecological Balance of each municipality. Results support the need for recalibration of CAP financing mechanisms, with greater emphasis on ecological performance and sustainability.
{"title":"Assessing the environmental sustainability of Portuguese agriculture","authors":"Elisa Biagetti , Miguel Viegas , Angelo Martella , Silvio Franco , Sara Moreno Pires","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural activity is simultaneously a supplier and consumer of biocapacity. In this sense, the methodology based on the Ecological Footprint and biocapacity is particularly useful for evaluating the environmental sustainability of agricultural practices.</div><div>This article aims to assess the environmental sustainability of Portuguese national and municipal agriculture systems (cropland and livestock) by a synthetic indicator (Ecological Balance) applied to the 278 municipalities of mainland Portugal, based on the Ecological Footprint approach. After identifying regional clusters through a spatial data analysis, the article uses a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the relationship between the environmental sustainability of agricultural practices and the distribution of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) support in Portugal.</div><div>The Ecological Balance of Portuguese agriculture is globally negative. However, it is based on great regional heterogeneity. Profitability negatively affects the environmental performance of agriculture. As a worrying element, the results point to a negative relationship between the support of the CAP and the agricultural Ecological Balance of each municipality. Results support the need for recalibration of CAP financing mechanisms, with greater emphasis on ecological performance and sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101209"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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