Using dynamic release modeling to predict historic and current macro- and microplastic releases

Abstract

Confronting the pervasive challenge of plastic pollution, our study pioneers a dynamic release model to quantify the historic and current plastic emissions. Utilizing Dynamic Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis (DPMFA) coupled to a release model, we comprehensively tracked emissions of macro- and microplastics in Switzerland from 1950 to 2022, covering 35 product categories and 183 release pathways for seven polymers (LDPE, HDPE, PP, PS, EPS, PVC, PET). The plastic usage exhibited a “Peak Plastic” around the year 2010 with a subsequent decrease in per capita use of plastics from 120±5 to 107±5 kg/cap in 2022. Over the considered timeframe, 27±1 kg/cap of macroplastics and 4 ± 1 kg/cap of microplastics were released to the environment, with the most substantial contributions coming from LDPE and PET. The overall emission factor was 0.66±0.07 % for macroplastics and 0.010±0.01 % for microplastics. The model can provide a crucial framework for crafting targeted interventions toward sustainable plastic lifecycle management.