Socio-hydrological lock-in; an emergent phenomenon in the face of anthropogenic drought

Abstract

This study investigates the drought of three major terminal lakes: Great Salt Lake, Salton Sea, and Lake Urmia, driven by socio-hydrological lock-in—a phenomenon characterized by feedback loops between human activities and environmental processes. Previous research has linked this drying to socio-hydrological lock-in, where rational actions by individuals collectively lead to suboptimal outcomes, exacerbating water scarcity and ecological degradation. Despite existing studies, a critical knowledge gap remains in understanding how these feedback mechanisms operate across different socio-economic and ecological contexts. This research seeks to address this gap through an integrative analysis of historical data and case studies, highlighting the interplay between increased water demand for agriculture, population growth, and governance challenges. The resultant shrinkage of these lakes exposes saline playas, generating salt-rich dust with severe ecological and health impacts, including soil salinization and respiratory illnesses. By comparing the socio-hydrological lock-in across diverse regions, this study provides insights into preventing and mitigating these cycles. It emphasizes the necessity for holistic water management strategies that integrate both supply and demand-side measures. The key contribution of this research lies in its systematic exploration of the feedback mechanisms driving socio-hydrological lock-ins, offering a foundation for developing sustainable water resource management policies globally. This work aims to influence policy and practice by highlighting the need for integrated, long-term strategies that balance economic pursuits with environmental sustainability, ensuring resilience in water management amidst mounting environmental challenges.