Assessment of multidimensional diversity and conservation of threatened timber trees in China under climate change

Abstract

Understanding spatial patterns of multidimensional diversity is crucial for effective conservation planning, especially in mountainous regions that are often biodiversity hotspots. This study focused on assessing the impact of climate change on the distribution of 110 threatened timber tree species in China, combining species distribution models and phylogenetic frameworks to quantify multidimensional diversity indices. The research aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of these indices in guiding the prioritization of protected areas and conservation strategies in the face of climate change. The findings revealed that Chinese protected areas are projected to experience a significant decline in their ability to protect the top 15 % hotspots for evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) species under future climate scenarios. This decline ranges from 17.11 % to 29.93 %, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies. Energy-related factors, particularly annual mean temperature and temperature annual range, were identified as key drivers of timber tree distribution patterns. Based on these results, the study advocate for the integration of multidimensional diversity indices into conservation priority evaluation frameworks and considering species' evolutionary history and vulnerability when determining regional biodiversity targets. This approach can help improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts in the face of ongoing climate change.