How has the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the aviation network? A comparative pre- and during-pandemic analysis

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted international flights, leading to substantial economic repercussions for the global tourism industry. While existing research has explored the resilience and recovery of the air transport system during the pandemic, this analysis delves into the structural transformation of the air transportation network within “the Belt and Road” region through a quantitative analysis. The findings reveal three critical aspects: (1) The pandemic caused a marked reduction in air transport connectivity, with flight frequency and route connectivity between cities decreasing by 27.82% and 35.87%, respectively, although the basic aviation framework remained intact. This impact varied across different administrative levels, regions, and distances, due to the impact of different countries' pandemic policies. Transnational connections were particularly hard-hit, experiencing more severe disruptions than domestic routes. (2) Significant shifts occurred in the rankings of aviation hubs. For example, cities like Singapore and Doha rose in prominence, while traditional hubs such as Moscow and Beijing saw a decline in their rankings. This shift reflects a reconfiguration of key nodes within the aviation network. (3) The network structure underwent significant reorganization and decentralization, transitioning from a conventional core-periphery model to a hybrid structure that blends core-peripheries with local communities. This transformation demonstrates the network's adaptability and its capacity to develop alternative structures in response to sudden external shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. The insights from this analysis offer valuable guidance for policy-making and the development of emergency measures to better prepare for and mitigate future disruptions in air transport. The analysis underscores the importance of flexible and adaptive strategies in managing aviation networks, particularly in the face of global challenges.