Pub Date : 2025-02-22DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.020
Min Su , Wenhang Fan , Baoyang Hu , Ziqi Su
Fierce competition between China's high-speed railway (HSR) and civil aviation (CA) in the passenger transportation market is unprecedented in other countries. This study constructs the competition network between HSR and CA based on “train schedule” and “flight schedule,” analyzes their spatial competition pattern and level, and explores the impact of their competition level on urban economic growth. We find that the scale of the competition network of HSR and CA is expanding, with a spatial pattern decreasing from east-central to the west and expanding from “center city” to “edge city”; the competition level changes with the geographic distance in an “inverted U″ shape, and the competition is the most intense in the 700–1300 km zone. In terms of spatial distribution, the dominant lines of HSR are characterized by geographical proximity, while the distribution of CA dominant lines is more scattered; the advantageous lines of HSR are mainly located in the southeast of the “Hu Line,” while the advantageous lines of CA are characterized by the “rhombus” structure centered on Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu; the fiercely competitive routes show a “star-shaped network” distribution with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi'an, and Guiyang as the core nodes. Furthermore, we find that competition between the two has promoted urban economic growth with a more pronounced impact on cities with better economic conditions at the two terminals.
{"title":"Impact of competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation on urban economic growth","authors":"Min Su , Wenhang Fan , Baoyang Hu , Ziqi Su","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fierce competition between China's high-speed railway (HSR) and civil aviation (CA) in the passenger transportation market is unprecedented in other countries. This study constructs the competition network between HSR and CA based on “train schedule” and “flight schedule,” analyzes their spatial competition pattern and level, and explores the impact of their competition level on urban economic growth. We find that the scale of the competition network of HSR and CA is expanding, with a spatial pattern decreasing from east-central to the west and expanding from “center city” to “edge city”; the competition level changes with the geographic distance in an “inverted U″ shape, and the competition is the most intense in the 700–1300 km zone. In terms of spatial distribution, the dominant lines of HSR are characterized by geographical proximity, while the distribution of CA dominant lines is more scattered; the advantageous lines of HSR are mainly located in the southeast of the “Hu Line,” while the advantageous lines of CA are characterized by the “rhombus” structure centered on Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu; the fiercely competitive routes show a “star-shaped network” distribution with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi'an, and Guiyang as the core nodes. Furthermore, we find that competition between the two has promoted urban economic growth with a more pronounced impact on cities with better economic conditions at the two terminals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 164-178"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143511227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-21DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.019
Jaehyung Lee, Jinhee Kim
Transportation systems have reached a tipping point with autonomous driving technologies and innovative mobility services. There are a growing number of studies related to factors affecting the preference for automated mobility-on-demand mobility (AMoD) services. However, the various factors affecting the heterogeneity of autonomous driving services have not been thoroughly explored. Therefore, this study aimed to scrutinize the factors affecting the taste heterogeneity of autonomous driving services. A combined method of a latent class model and a random forest was suggested to overcome the overparameterization problem in a latent class model. The proposed model allows us to consider a wide range of variables affecting mode preferences at once, while it is challenging to interpret the direction and the magnitude of impact or heterogeneity compared to the latent class model. Therefore, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was employed to interpret the results of the random forest. To investigate a variety of factors, two datasets, which are data including stated choice preferences, demographics, and attitudinal indicators from online questionnaire and regional characteristics from Statistics Korea, were combined based on the residential addresses of respondents. The latent class model revealed six classes based on transport mode preference. This suggests that there is taste heterogeneity in the preference for AMoD. SHAP analysis identified the magnitude and direction of the impact of the factors influencing taste heterogeneity for AMoD. The findings of this study can contribute to establishing transportation policies for autonomous vehicle diffusion and selection of pilot districts.
{"title":"Where can automated mobility-on-demand service thrive: A combined method of latent class choice and random forest","authors":"Jaehyung Lee, Jinhee Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transportation systems have reached a tipping point with autonomous driving technologies and innovative mobility services. There are a growing number of studies related to factors affecting the preference for automated mobility-on-demand mobility (AMoD) services. However, the various factors affecting the heterogeneity of autonomous driving services have not been thoroughly explored. Therefore, this study aimed to scrutinize the factors affecting the taste heterogeneity of autonomous driving services. A combined method of a latent class model and a random forest was suggested to overcome the overparameterization problem in a latent class model. The proposed model allows us to consider a wide range of variables affecting mode preferences at once, while it is challenging to interpret the direction and the magnitude of impact or heterogeneity compared to the latent class model. Therefore, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was employed to interpret the results of the random forest. To investigate a variety of factors, two datasets, which are data including stated choice preferences, demographics, and attitudinal indicators from online questionnaire and regional characteristics from Statistics Korea, were combined based on the residential addresses of respondents. The latent class model revealed six classes based on transport mode preference. This suggests that there is taste heterogeneity in the preference for AMoD. SHAP analysis identified the magnitude and direction of the impact of the factors influencing taste heterogeneity for AMoD. The findings of this study can contribute to establishing transportation policies for autonomous vehicle diffusion and selection of pilot districts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 127-149"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-19DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.013
Harpreet Singh , Ankit Kathuria , Kuldeep Kavta , Gustav Bosehans , Margaret Carol Bell , Dilum Dissanayake
Unlike single vehicle sharing schemes, eHUBs offer at least two of a wide range of shared electric-vehicles to meet users' diverse travel needs. Since there is limited knowledge about multi-modal electric vehicle sharing schemes, this study examines individual's intentions to use eHUBs with particular attention to car users. Based on survey responses from 3310 car users across six European countries including the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, the study examines how each individuals' attitudes and socio-demographic variables affect their intentions to use different vehicles offered by eHUBs. Findings show that positive and negative attitudes toward shared mobility and their acceptance of alternate modes significantly affect intentions, while environmental beliefs have no statistically significant effect. Furthermore, age and gender emerged as significant predictors of intentions, and car users showed higher propensity to use shared electric-cars and electric-bikes over electric-cargo bikes. Based on the findings, the study presents recommendations of ways to encourage and incentivise private car users' to use shared mobility alternatives.
{"title":"Exploring the tenability of shared electric mobility alternatives: Will car users adopt eHUBs?","authors":"Harpreet Singh , Ankit Kathuria , Kuldeep Kavta , Gustav Bosehans , Margaret Carol Bell , Dilum Dissanayake","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unlike single vehicle sharing schemes, eHUBs offer at least two of a wide range of shared electric-vehicles to meet users' diverse travel needs. Since there is limited knowledge about multi-modal electric vehicle sharing schemes, this study examines individual's intentions to use eHUBs with particular attention to car users. Based on survey responses from 3310 car users across six European countries including the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, the study examines how each individuals' attitudes and socio-demographic variables affect their intentions to use different vehicles offered by eHUBs. Findings show that positive and negative attitudes toward shared mobility and their acceptance of alternate modes significantly affect intentions, while environmental beliefs have no statistically significant effect. Furthermore, age and gender emerged as significant predictors of intentions, and car users showed higher propensity to use shared electric-cars and electric-bikes over electric-cargo bikes. Based on the findings, the study presents recommendations of ways to encourage and incentivise private car users' to use shared mobility alternatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"166 ","pages":"Pages 1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-14DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.010
Suguru Otani , Takuma Matsuda
We construct a novel unified merger list in the global container shipping industry between 1966 (the beginning of the industry) and 2022. Combining the list with proprietary data, we construct a structural matching model to describe the historical transition of the importance of a firm’s age, size, and geographical proximity on merger decisions. We find that, as a positive factor, a firm’s size is more important than a firm’s age by 9.858 times as a merger incentive between 1991 and 2005. However, between 2006 and 2022, as a negative factor, a firm’s size is more important than a firm’s age by 2.013 times, that is, a firm’s size works as a disincentive. We also find that the distance between buyer and seller firms works as a disincentive for the whole period, but the importance has dwindled to economic insignificance in recent years. In counterfactual simulations, we observe that the prohibition of mergers between firms in the same country would affect the merger configuration of not only the firms involved in prohibited mergers but also those involved in permitted mergers. Finally, we present interview-based evidence of the consistency between our merger lists, estimations, and counterfactual simulations with the industry experts’ historical experiences.
{"title":"Unified merger list in the container shipping industry from 1966 to 2022: A structural estimation of M&A matching","authors":"Suguru Otani , Takuma Matsuda","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We construct a novel unified merger list in the global container shipping industry between 1966 (the beginning of the industry) and 2022. Combining the list with proprietary data, we construct a structural matching model to describe the historical transition of the importance of a firm’s age, size, and geographical proximity on merger decisions. We find that, as a positive factor, a firm’s size is more important than a firm’s age by 9.858 times as a merger incentive between 1991 and 2005. However, between 2006 and 2022, as a negative factor, a firm’s size is more important than a firm’s age by 2.013 times, that is, a firm’s size works as a disincentive. We also find that the distance between buyer and seller firms works as a disincentive for the whole period, but the importance has dwindled to economic insignificance in recent years. In counterfactual simulations, we observe that the prohibition of mergers between firms in the same country would affect the merger configuration of not only the firms involved in prohibited mergers but also those involved in permitted mergers. Finally, we present interview-based evidence of the consistency between our merger lists, estimations, and counterfactual simulations with the industry experts’ historical experiences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 58-69"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.016
Yingying Xing , Lun Li , Xiaolu Sheng , Huiyu Zhou , Xiao Han
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) promise the potential to revolutionize road transport by mitigating traffic congestion and greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing accessibility and road safety. However, the adoption and deployment of AVs hinge on public perceptions of this new technology. This study aimed to investigate the disparities between urban and rural areas in China concerning public attitudes towards AVs and the willingness to use them. By collecting 1764 questionnaires, we found that respondents from urban and rural areas showed substantial differences in their attitudes towards and willingness to use AVs. Specifically, urban respondents were more willing to use AVs and held more positive attitudes than their rural counterparts. Additionally, sociodemographic factors such as income and education, road conditions such as the clarity of traffic signs and traffic congestion, as well as perceived benefits, safety, and trust towards AVs, were significantly associated with the willingness to use AVs. Although the presence of bike lanes and road spaciousness were not directly associated with the willingness to use AVs, our results revealed that these factors mediated the relationship between residence and the willingness to use AVs. Our findings highlight the importance of bridging the urban-rural divide in education, income, and road infrastructure during the development and deployment of AVs. Furthermore, given the significantly different attitudes toward AVs between urban and rural areas, policymakers should adopt distinct policy approaches for urban and rural areas when AVs enter the mass market in developing countries in the future.
{"title":"Understanding public perceptions of autonomous vehicles: A structural model to urban-rural differences and psychological factors","authors":"Yingying Xing , Lun Li , Xiaolu Sheng , Huiyu Zhou , Xiao Han","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Autonomous vehicles (AVs) promise the potential to revolutionize road transport by mitigating traffic congestion and greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing accessibility and road safety. However, the adoption and deployment of AVs hinge on public perceptions of this new technology. This study aimed to investigate the disparities between urban and rural areas in China concerning public attitudes towards AVs and the willingness to use them. By collecting 1764 questionnaires, we found that respondents from urban and rural areas showed substantial differences in their attitudes towards and willingness to use AVs. Specifically, urban respondents were more willing to use AVs and held more positive attitudes than their rural counterparts. Additionally, sociodemographic factors such as income and education, road conditions such as the clarity of traffic signs and traffic congestion, as well as perceived benefits, safety, and trust towards AVs, were significantly associated with the willingness to use AVs. Although the presence of bike lanes and road spaciousness were not directly associated with the willingness to use AVs, our results revealed that these factors mediated the relationship between residence and the willingness to use AVs. Our findings highlight the importance of bridging the urban-rural divide in education, income, and road infrastructure during the development and deployment of AVs. Furthermore, given the significantly different attitudes toward AVs between urban and rural areas, policymakers should adopt distinct policy approaches for urban and rural areas when AVs enter the mass market in developing countries in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 70-84"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.015
Luis A. Guzman , Juan Esteban Sanchez , Victor A. Cantillo-Garcia , Santiago Gomez Cardona , Olga L. Sarmiento
Urban transport using aerial cable systems has emerged as a solution to connect neighborhoods that are traditionally difficult to access. This study investigates the impact of a new cable car line on accessibility, public transport satisfaction, and participation in leisure activities within a peripheral, low-income, and highly segregated community in Bogotá, Colombia. In addition to a pre-cable car assessment conducted in 2018, three follow-up assessments were carried out between 2019 and 2023, comparing a treatment area with a control area. The treatment area consists of households located in neighborhoods surrounding the cable car corridor, while the control area includes households in the vicinity of a future cable car line in an area with similar geographical and socioeconomic characteristics. Household surveys (N = 6376) were conducted in both groups before and after the cable car line's inauguration, with 2052 surveys collected at baseline, 1679 during the first follow-up, 1419 in the second, and 1226 in the third. This study represents the first application of a large experimental-control group design around cable cars on a global scale. Despite the significance of this intervention, few transport studies have evaluated its impact using panel data over time. The panel design offers an opportunity to observe causal links between the project and the observed outcomes. The results indicate a significant increase in accessibility, satisfaction with public transport, and participation in leisure activities among the treatment group following the implementation of the cable car. However, women experienced a smaller increase in accessibility and expressed lower satisfaction with public transport, potentially due to their caregiving roles and concerns about safety and harassment. These findings underscore the important social and potential economic impacts that transport interventions can have on populations. Public investments of this nature are typically challenging to evaluate through social control trials, but the knowledge generated from this type of experimental evaluation could be highly valuable for policymakers.
{"title":"A lifeline for the disconnected: A longitudinal study of a cable car's impact on accessibility, satisfaction, and leisure activities","authors":"Luis A. Guzman , Juan Esteban Sanchez , Victor A. Cantillo-Garcia , Santiago Gomez Cardona , Olga L. Sarmiento","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban transport using aerial cable systems has emerged as a solution to connect neighborhoods that are traditionally difficult to access. This study investigates the impact of a new cable car line on accessibility, public transport satisfaction, and participation in leisure activities within a peripheral, low-income, and highly segregated community in Bogotá, Colombia. In addition to a pre-cable car assessment conducted in 2018, three follow-up assessments were carried out between 2019 and 2023, comparing a treatment area with a control area. The treatment area consists of households located in neighborhoods surrounding the cable car corridor, while the control area includes households in the vicinity of a future cable car line in an area with similar geographical and socioeconomic characteristics. Household surveys (N = 6376) were conducted in both groups before and after the cable car line's inauguration, with 2052 surveys collected at baseline, 1679 during the first follow-up, 1419 in the second, and 1226 in the third. This study represents the first application of a large experimental-control group design around cable cars on a global scale. Despite the significance of this intervention, few transport studies have evaluated its impact using panel data over time. The panel design offers an opportunity to observe causal links between the project and the observed outcomes. The results indicate a significant increase in accessibility, satisfaction with public transport, and participation in leisure activities among the treatment group following the implementation of the cable car. However, women experienced a smaller increase in accessibility and expressed lower satisfaction with public transport, potentially due to their caregiving roles and concerns about safety and harassment. These findings underscore the important social and potential economic impacts that transport interventions can have on populations. Public investments of this nature are typically challenging to evaluate through social control trials, but the knowledge generated from this type of experimental evaluation could be highly valuable for policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 85-96"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.014
Manolis Kotzampasakis
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has been expanded to include maritime transport. Since 2024, large ships that stop at European Economic Area ports are subject to a carbon price under the EU's greenhouse gas emissions cap. To improve understanding about the goals and possible impacts of this EU policy expansion, the present article conducts a Scopus and Web of Science-based systematic literature review of peer-reviewed publications that assess the legal design or expected effects of EU maritime emissions trading. The relevant findings from 51 identified studies are categorized based on a framework of assessment criteria, which are systematically derived from the policy objectives outlined in the EU ETS Directive: emissions reductions, cost-effectiveness, economic efficiency, equity, and coherence. The aggregation of literature findings with a qualitative research synthesis provides a comprehensive up-to-date assessment of the maritime EU ETS, illuminating trade-offs between the pursued policy objectives and revealing gaps in existing knowledge. These findings suggest that the EU ETS can result in significant emissions reductions, at a lower overall cost compared to regulatory alternatives. It can also help to stimulate the adoption of technical and operational decarbonization solutions in maritime transport. However, uncertainties remain regarding the risk of carbon leakage, the uneven economic impacts of the EU ETS on certain countries, populations, and shipping segments, as well as its coherence with other domestic and international policies. This overview guides decision-makers in the first implementation stages of the maritime EU ETS and informs the design of similar market-based policies in other jurisdictions.
{"title":"Maritime emissions trading in the EU: Systematic literature review and policy assessment","authors":"Manolis Kotzampasakis","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has been expanded to include maritime transport. Since 2024, large ships that stop at European Economic Area ports are subject to a carbon price under the EU's greenhouse gas emissions cap. To improve understanding about the goals and possible impacts of this EU policy expansion, the present article conducts a Scopus and Web of Science-based systematic literature review of peer-reviewed publications that assess the legal design or expected effects of EU maritime emissions trading. The relevant findings from 51 identified studies are categorized based on a framework of assessment criteria, which are systematically derived from the policy objectives outlined in the EU ETS Directive: emissions reductions, cost-effectiveness, economic efficiency, equity, and coherence. The aggregation of literature findings with a qualitative research synthesis provides a comprehensive up-to-date assessment of the maritime EU ETS, illuminating trade-offs between the pursued policy objectives and revealing gaps in existing knowledge. These findings suggest that the EU ETS can result in significant emissions reductions, at a lower overall cost compared to regulatory alternatives. It can also help to stimulate the adoption of technical and operational decarbonization solutions in maritime transport. However, uncertainties remain regarding the risk of carbon leakage, the uneven economic impacts of the EU ETS on certain countries, populations, and shipping segments, as well as its coherence with other domestic and international policies. This overview guides decision-makers in the first implementation stages of the maritime EU ETS and informs the design of similar market-based policies in other jurisdictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 28-41"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.012
Shanshan Fu , Yan Chen , Jihong Chen , Meiyu Shi , Lang Xu
Flag state control (FSC) is crucial for maritime safety, but its effectiveness varies across flag states. A scientific assessment of FSC's effectiveness not only differentiates high-performing states from those with inadequate performance - prompting improvements among the latter - but also assists PSC organizations in evaluating flag states' performance during vessel selection, enabling more accurate targeting of inspections. Therefore, a multidimensional fixed-effects model is proposed to assess the effectiveness of FSC using inspection data from both Paris MoU and Tokyo MoU from 2017 to 2022. By comparing the results with the White, Grey, and Black (WGB) lists from the Paris MoU and Tokyo MoU, it is evident that the evaluated FSC's effectiveness of flag states generally aligns with the WGB lists and offers a more comprehensive assessment than those lists alone. Also, this paper estimates the effects of various factors, such as ship type and defect type, on the number of ship deficiencies. This offers valuable guidance for future efforts to mitigate ship deficiencies, enhancing overall maritime safety and operational efficiency.
{"title":"Deficiency performance analysis of flag states using inspection data: A case study of Paris and Tokyo MoUs","authors":"Shanshan Fu , Yan Chen , Jihong Chen , Meiyu Shi , Lang Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flag state control (FSC) is crucial for maritime safety, but its effectiveness varies across flag states. A scientific assessment of FSC's effectiveness not only differentiates high-performing states from those with inadequate performance - prompting improvements among the latter - but also assists PSC organizations in evaluating flag states' performance during vessel selection, enabling more accurate targeting of inspections. Therefore, a multidimensional fixed-effects model is proposed to assess the effectiveness of FSC using inspection data from both Paris MoU and Tokyo MoU from 2017 to 2022. By comparing the results with the White, Grey, and Black (WGB) lists from the Paris MoU and Tokyo MoU, it is evident that the evaluated FSC's effectiveness of flag states generally aligns with the WGB lists and offers a more comprehensive assessment than those lists alone. Also, this paper estimates the effects of various factors, such as ship type and defect type, on the number of ship deficiencies. This offers valuable guidance for future efforts to mitigate ship deficiencies, enhancing overall maritime safety and operational efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 42-57"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-10DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.006
Léonard Moulin , Valeria Maria Urbano
Congestion pricing, also referred to as road pricing, is a form of Pigouvian taxation designed to limit or reduce vehicular traffic within a specific area. These systems aim to encourage changes in driving behavior and the choice of transportation mode. An example of a congestion pricing system is the Milan Area C charging zone, which operates on a fixed-rate basis. In recent years, two changes to the system have been introduced: (i) restrictions on the vehicle types allowed to enter the zone, and (ii) a 50 percent increase in the congestion charge. This study introduces a novel and replicable approach to evaluate the effectiveness of these policy changes, by studying the ratio of vehicles entering Area C to the total number of unique individuals within it, leveraging mobile phone data on user presence. Using fixed-effects models to control for unobserved heterogeneity across time, this study analyzes the impact of these two policy changes in the Area C congestion pricing system. The findings indicate that both policy changes influenced individuals’ choice of transportation mode, with vehicle type restrictions having a greater impact than price increases. This shows the effectiveness of the two types of measures, offering insights for policymakers on how to enhance congestion charging system effectiveness through refined pricing strategies and vehicle limitations. Additionally, demographic characteristics of users present in the area, as captured through mobile phone data, such as the proportion of women and elderly individuals, significantly influence transportation choices. Recognizing these factors is essential for policymakers, as it highlights the need for equitable policies that improve acceptance and effectiveness among vulnerable groups. Additionally, demographic characteristics of users present in the area, as captured through mobile phone data—such as the proportion of women and elderly individuals—significantly influence transportation choices.
{"title":"Evaluating the effectiveness of two congestion limitation policies in Milan: Charge increase and vehicle type","authors":"Léonard Moulin , Valeria Maria Urbano","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Congestion pricing, also referred to as road pricing, is a form of Pigouvian taxation designed to limit or reduce vehicular traffic within a specific area. These systems aim to encourage changes in driving behavior and the choice of transportation mode. An example of a congestion pricing system is the Milan Area C charging zone, which operates on a fixed-rate basis. In recent years, two changes to the system have been introduced: (i) restrictions on the vehicle types allowed to enter the zone, and (ii) a 50 percent increase in the congestion charge. This study introduces a novel and replicable approach to evaluate the effectiveness of these policy changes, by studying the ratio of vehicles entering Area C to the total number of unique individuals within it, leveraging mobile phone data on user presence. Using fixed-effects models to control for unobserved heterogeneity across time, this study analyzes the impact of these two policy changes in the Area C congestion pricing system. The findings indicate that both policy changes influenced individuals’ choice of transportation mode, with vehicle type restrictions having a greater impact than price increases. This shows the effectiveness of the two types of measures, offering insights for policymakers on how to enhance congestion charging system effectiveness through refined pricing strategies and vehicle limitations. Additionally, demographic characteristics of users present in the area, as captured through mobile phone data, such as the proportion of women and elderly individuals, significantly influence transportation choices. Recognizing these factors is essential for policymakers, as it highlights the need for equitable policies that improve acceptance and effectiveness among vulnerable groups. Additionally, demographic characteristics of users present in the area, as captured through mobile phone data—such as the proportion of women and elderly individuals—significantly influence transportation choices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 17-27"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143385908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-08DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.011
Sangen Hu , Chun Li , Weitiao Wu , Ying Yang
Demand-responsive transit (DRT) is gaining prominence in urban public transportation research, especially in rapidly modernizing transit systems of developing countries such as China. Despite DRT's advantages, challenges such as low market demand and utilization persist. To ensure DRT's successful integration and promotion, understanding public acceptance and its determinants is vital. This study expands the technology acceptance model (TAM) by incorporating trust, personal innovativeness, subjective norms, service quality, and perceived risk as pivotal factors influencing DRT acceptance. An online survey was conducted where a total of 627 valid responses were collected via snowball sampling. Structural equation modeling and path analysis were employed to dissect the factors influencing DRT adoption intentions. The results reveal that the proposed extended model accounts for 78.1% of the variance in DRT usage intentions. Trust exerts the most substantial influence on the usage intention of DRT, directly shaping user intentions and indirectly influencing them through various associated constructs. Service quality indirectly impacts intentions through perceived usefulness and personal innovativeness. Personal innovativeness and subjective norms have both direct and indirect impacts, whereas perceived risk solely indirectly affects intentions negatively. The research highlights the critical role of trust and service quality in shaping public DRT intentions and the importance of personal innovativeness and subjective norms in driving adoption. It also emphasizes the necessity of addressing perceived risk for acceptance. Theoretical and practical implications guide policymakers and operators in enhancing DRT services in China's evolving transit environment.
{"title":"Exploring the determinants of demand-responsive transit acceptance in China","authors":"Sangen Hu , Chun Li , Weitiao Wu , Ying Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.02.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Demand-responsive transit (DRT) is gaining prominence in urban public transportation research, especially in rapidly modernizing transit systems of developing countries such as China. Despite DRT's advantages, challenges such as low market demand and utilization persist. To ensure DRT's successful integration and promotion, understanding public acceptance and its determinants is vital. This study expands the technology acceptance model (TAM) by incorporating trust, personal innovativeness, subjective norms, service quality, and perceived risk as pivotal factors influencing DRT acceptance. An online survey was conducted where a total of 627 valid responses were collected via snowball sampling. Structural equation modeling and path analysis were employed to dissect the factors influencing DRT adoption intentions. The results reveal that the proposed extended model accounts for 78.1% of the variance in DRT usage intentions. Trust exerts the most substantial influence on the usage intention of DRT, directly shaping user intentions and indirectly influencing them through various associated constructs. Service quality indirectly impacts intentions through perceived usefulness and personal innovativeness. Personal innovativeness and subjective norms have both direct and indirect impacts, whereas perceived risk solely indirectly affects intentions negatively. The research highlights the critical role of trust and service quality in shaping public DRT intentions and the importance of personal innovativeness and subjective norms in driving adoption. It also emphasizes the necessity of addressing perceived risk for acceptance. Theoretical and practical implications guide policymakers and operators in enhancing DRT services in China's evolving transit environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 150-163"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号