Suitability matching evaluation of the low-carbon regional integrated energy system based on the “resource-demand” balance

Abstract

The integrated energy system (IES) stands out due to its advantages of multi-energy complementarity, green and efficiency. This paper aims to provide a practical model for suitable region site selection of low-carbon regional IES based on the “resource-demand” balance. A “resource-demand” suitability matching analysis indicator system is established. By using prospect theory and variable precision rough set theory, the decision-making preferences and the cognitive fuzziness influence of expert scoring were corrected respectively, and reasonable subjective weights were obtained. Then, the objective weights are obtained using the entropy method, and the optimal combined weights are obtained through the game theory weighting method. Finally, this paper establishes a “resource-demand” suitability matching model consisting of three sub models: similarity matching degree, numerical matching degree, and suitability matching degree. An empirical study is conducted on 16 regions in Beijing, and the results show that the numerical matching degree of “resource-demand” gradually decrease from the central urban regions to the surrounding regions. The similarity matching degree in most regions reaches the highest range (0.776,1.00). There are 4 regions with a suitability matching rating of perfect, 7 regions with a rating of great, 1 region with a rating of good, and 4 regions with a rating of poor. The suitability matching model established in this paper can guide energy project decision-makers to select regions with greater potential for the development of IES. In addition, adjusting the similarity matching coefficient and numerical matching coefficient can meet the diversified needs of decision-makers for the similarity matching degree and numerical matching degree of the “resource-demand” balance, providing support for energy project planning decisions.