Limits to Modeling: Design Lessons from the World Problematique

Abstract

Over 50 years have passed since The Limits to Growth was published in response to the Club of Rome’s challenge to address the “world problematique.” This landmark study introduced a computer simulation known as World3, which modeled global challenges using then-new system dynamics modeling technology. While The Limits to Growth and World3 have been updated and widely studied, the original concept of the world problematique has received less attention. This article argues that revisiting the evolution of the world problematique as a model of interconnected global issues offers valuable insights for policy and design, especially in addressing today’s polycrisis. It traces the historical development of the world problematique and the World3 model, highlighting a divergence in systems science, contrasting the technocratic, data-driven policy approach with alternatives that emphasize pluralistic social systems and stakeholder deliberation. This study explores the evolution of these approaches, contrasting global modeling with social systems design (employing qualitative modeling) for complex systems. While global models like World3 and its successors offer valuable insights into the dynamics of specific problem variables, we suggest that they often lack transparency, stakeholder contribution, or an understanding of regional and sociocultural contexts. We call for ethical orientation to responsible engagement, especially for stakeholders affected by crisis policy decisions resulting from simulation models and complex narratives like the problematique.