Assessment of the collision risk on the road around schools during morning peak period

Abstract

Road traffic injury is a leading cause of death among pupils worldwide, particularly around primary schools during rush hours, where heavy traffic, frequent parking, and unpredictable patterns increase accident risk. To mitigate these risks, this study employs the peak-over-threshold method with the generalized pareto distribution to evaluate the spatial–temporal collision risk near primary schools during rush hours. Specifically, the research quantifies collision risks spatially across different road segments (upstream, midstream, and downstream) and lanes (outside, middle, and inside). Temporally, it assesses risks during vehicle gathering, peak vehicle concentration, and vehicle dissipation phases. Results show that collision risk decreases from upstream to downstream but increases from the outside lane to the inside lane. Moreover, collision risks are highest in the middle and outside lanes during the gathering and peak periods in upstream and midstream sections, and in the middle lanes during the dissipation phase. These findings recommend adding parking spaces, minimizing lane changes, reducing speed limits in upstream and midstream, and increasing speed limits in downstream and inside lanes. These measures aim to improve road traffic management policies around schools.