Environmental displacement and political instability: Evidence from Africa

Abstract

Does environmental displacement provoke political instability? Though migration has long been considered an intermediary in the causal path between environmental change and political upheaval, the relationship remains theoretically underdeveloped and evidence has been limited. This article examines the impact of displacement caused by sudden-onset natural hazards on disruptive antigovernment events including armed conflict, protests and violent riots. It leverages the new Environmental Displacement Dataset (EnDis), an original dataset that identifies quantities of human movement in response to six types of sudden-onset natural hazards in Africa from 1990 to 2017, including floods, storms, wildfires, landslides, earthquakes and volcanic activity. The results of the analyses show that while environmental displacement is not associated with civil war onset or protests, it does increase the incidence of attacks by armed non-state actors and violent riots. Importantly, these destabilizing effects occurr primarily (1) in the context of displacement driven by floods and storms, and (2) when levels of displacement are well above average. Collectively, these findings portend deepening security crises and violent political upheaval as climate change drives more frequent episodes of extreme weather and excessive environmental displacement.