Optimal Control Strategies for COVID-19 Using SEIQR Mathematical Model

Abstract

The aim of this work is to create the SEIQR model for COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. The inclusion of a quarantine compartment in the model’s architecture is crucial in halting the transmission of disease to the vulnerable class. Simulation had been run in two phases: Phase 1, which ran from January 4, 2020 to June 13, 2020, and phase 2, which ran from June 14, 2020 to March 6, 2021. The SEIQR model analysis yields local stability at the fundamental reproduction number and the disease-free equilibrium point when the next generation matrix approach is used. The reproduction number was determined to be 6.81 when \(\gamma\) was \(2.0 \times 10^{-9}\), 7.49 when \(\gamma\) was \(2.2 \times 10^{-9}\) and 8.17 when \(\gamma\) was \(2.4 \times 10^{-9}\). The outcomes of the simulation unambiguously show that phase 2 is the point at which the optimal condition is reached. The most important thing for any disease is to have control methods. Sensitivity analysis has been done as part of control strategies, and after that, a fuzzy reproduction number control approach has been put into practice.