Prospective LCA towards achieving carbon neutrality goals: Framework application and challenges

Abstract

To achieve carbon neutrality, the development and application of low-carbon, zero-carbon, and negative-carbon technologies are crucial for transforming energy and industrial structures. Prospective Life Cycle Assessment (PLCA) serves as a vital tool in this transformation by providing a forward-looking framework for evaluating the future environmental impacts of emerging technologies. PLCA not only considers the scaling of technologies but also focuses on resource efficiency and energy system optimization. However, current PLCA frameworks often face challenges related to data limitations and inconsistencies in evaluation models, which can lead to uncertainties in environmental impact assessments. This paper proposes a robust and scientifically PLCA framework to reduce modeling uncertainties and support the carbon neutrality goal.

Based on the summary of the current research and application of PLCA, focusing on its role in assessing low-carbon, zero-carbon, and negative-carbon technologies in key sectors such as industry, transportation, construction, and agriculture, the paper identifies critical issues that PLCA must address to support the future development of these technologies. Through this enhanced PLCA framework, the paper aims to offer methodological support for decision-making in technology selection and energy optimization, providing policymakers with a clear path to advance carbon-neutral strategies while ensuring environmental sustainability and economic efficiency.