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Artificial intelligence applications in urban extreme heat management: A systematic review of forecasting, monitoring, mitigation and decision support 人工智能在城市极端高温管理中的应用:预测、监测、缓解和决策支持的系统综述
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108363
Jin Rui , Zahratu Shabrina , Wenjing Gong
Against the backdrop of global warming and rapid urbanization, urban extreme heat is becoming increasingly severe, with profound impacts on public health, infrastructure, and social equity. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) offer new opportunities to address this challenge. This systematic review examines 102 publications on AI applications in urban extreme heat governance. The findings reveal a “Northern bias,” with most studies in the United States, China, and Europe, while gaps exist in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Supervised learning dominates current approaches. AI demonstrates effectiveness across four dimensions of governance. In prediction and early warning, random forests and XGBoost are suitable for short-term forecasting, CNNs and LSTMs excel at spatiotemporal patterns, and hybrid models improve accuracy. In monitoring and assessment, AI overcomes spatiotemporal limits of remote sensing, shifting from static heat mapping to dynamic heat–population risk identification, with social media capturing residents' perceptions. In mitigation and adaptation, AI identifies thresholds of green–blue infrastructure, supports urban form regulation, and expands climate-adaptive design through generative AI. In scenario simulation and decision support, AI-powered digital twins and interactive platforms integrate planning and operations, fostering expert–public collaboration. Yet applications remain constrained by trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency, limited data integration, and insufficient causal inference, particularly in modeling the heat risk chain as a multi-stage system. Future work should build data frameworks integrating physical and social information and advance paradigm shifts toward causal inference and multi-objective optimization. A systematic AI framework can enable closed-loop governance from risk identification to intelligent response.
在全球变暖和快速城市化的背景下,城市极端高温日益严重,对公共卫生、基础设施和社会公平产生了深刻影响。人工智能(AI)的进步为应对这一挑战提供了新的机遇。本系统综述审查了102篇关于人工智能在城市极端高温治理中的应用的出版物。研究结果揭示了一种“北方偏见”,大多数研究在美国、中国和欧洲进行,而撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲则存在差距。监督学习主导了当前的学习方法。人工智能在治理的四个维度上展示了有效性。在预测预警方面,随机森林和XGBoost适合短期预测,cnn和LSTMs擅长时空模式,混合模型提高了预测精度。在监测和评估方面,人工智能克服了遥感的时空限制,从静态热制图转向动态热人口风险识别,并通过社交媒体捕捉居民的感知。在减缓和适应方面,人工智能确定了绿蓝基础设施的阈值,支持城市形态调节,并通过生成式人工智能扩展了气候适应性设计。在场景模拟和决策支持方面,人工智能驱动的数字孪生和互动平台将规划和运营相结合,促进专家和公众的协作。然而,应用仍然受到准确性和效率之间的权衡、有限的数据集成和不充分的因果推理的限制,特别是在将热风险链建模为多阶段系统方面。未来的工作应该建立整合物理和社会信息的数据框架,并推进范式向因果推理和多目标优化的转变。系统的人工智能框架可以实现从风险识别到智能响应的闭环治理。
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引用次数: 0
Regional and socioeconomic inequalities in the impact of environmental regulation on green innovation 区域和社会经济不平等在环境规制对绿色创新的影响
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108365
Meihan Liu , Jingjie Zhao , Yi Zhao , Ruilian Zhang
Green technology innovation (GTI) plays a pivotal role in advancing sustainable development and ecological modernization in China. This study investigates the spatial distribution and driving mechanisms of GTI inequality across Chinese provinces, with particular attention to the influence of environmental regulation. This paper makes several innovative contributions. First, it is among the few studies that analyze green technology innovation at the provincial level, moving beyond the predominant focus on the firm level. Second, it offers a spatially explicit perspective on how environmental regulation can be optimized to mitigate regional, economic, and demographic inequalities in innovation outcomes. Drawing on provincial panel data from 2007 to 2023 and employing quantitative models, the analysis reveals that GTI is disproportionately concentrated in economically advanced and coastal regions, while central and western provinces remain lagging. In detail, compared to 2007, the level of regional green innovation in 2023 increased by 900.11%. Over the period from 2007 to 2023, the average level of green innovation was 5524.49 (measured by the number of green patent applications). The average value was lowest in 2007 (612.97) and reached its highest in 2020 (11,982.30), reflecting steady growth until 2020, after which there was a noted decline as described earlier. Looking at the average levels across the 30 provinces and cities, the mean green innovation level was 5524.49, with Qinghai Province recording the lowest average (261.76) and Jiangsu Province the highest (24,563.88).The effects of environmental regulation are found to be heterogeneous across regions: in the eastern provinces, regulation exerts no significant influence on GTI, whereas in central and western regions, stronger regulation significantly enhances innovation. Similarly, environmental regulation is less effective in areas with high levels of economic development and large population sizes, but proves more conducive to green innovation in less-developed and less-populated regions. Among the key factors shaping these outcomes are clean energy utilization, environmental protection investment, economic development, and industrial structure. These findings highlight the necessity of adopting regionally differentiated innovation policies and tailoring regulatory frameworks to local conditions.
绿色技术创新在推动中国可持续发展和生态现代化建设中发挥着重要作用。本研究考察了中国省际GTI差异的空间分布及其驱动机制,并特别关注了环境规制的影响。本文做出了若干创新贡献。首先,它是少数几个在省级层面分析绿色技术创新的研究之一,超越了对企业层面的主要关注。其次,它为如何优化环境监管以缓解创新成果中的区域、经济和人口不平等提供了一个空间上明确的视角。利用2007 - 2023年的省级面板数据,运用定量模型进行分析,发现GTI在经济发达地区和沿海地区的集中程度过高,而中西部省份仍然落后。与2007年相比,2023年区域绿色创新水平提高了900.11%。2007 - 2023年,绿色创新的平均水平为5524.49(以绿色专利申请量衡量)。平均值在2007年最低(612.97),在2020年达到最高(11,982.30),反映出稳定的增长,直到2020年,之后如前所述,出现了明显的下降。从30个省市的平均水平来看,平均绿色创新水平为5524.49,其中青海省的平均水平最低(261.76),江苏省的平均水平最高(24563.88)。环境规制对地区间GTI的影响存在异质性,东部省份环境规制对GTI的影响不显著,而中西部地区环境规制对创新的影响显著。同样,环境监管在经济发展水平高、人口多的地区效果较差,而在欠发达、人口少的地区则更有利于绿色创新。清洁能源利用、环境保护投资、经济发展和产业结构是影响这些结果的关键因素。这些发现强调了采取区域差异化创新政策和根据当地情况调整监管框架的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating hybrid life cycle assessment to quantify carbon footprint in mariculture: Overcoming truncation errors and unveiling macroeconomic drivers 整合混合生命周期评估以量化海水养殖中的碳足迹:克服截断误差并揭示宏观经济驱动因素
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108359
Ting Jiang , Kangni Wu , Yuanchao Hu , Guobao Song , Weiwei Sun , Gengyuan Liu , Zhaoyuan Yu , Ling Cao , Shaobin Li
Marine aquaculture (mariculture) holds significant potential for reducing the carbon footprint (CF) compared to land-based meat production systems. However, conventional process-based life cycle assessment (P-LCA) methods tend to underestimate emissions due to truncation errors stemming from overlooked macroeconomic activities. Although integrated hybrid life cycle assessment (IH-LCA) has been introduced to mitigate truncation errors, its application in mariculture industry remains limited, largely because of the coarse granularity of the fishery sector in existing input-output models. In addition, CF of mariculture products are typically evaluated at the species level, without considering the differences between management practices. Here, an IH-LCA method with finer granularity was first developed by disaggregating products of mariculture into four categories (e.g., fish, shrimp, shellfish, and macroalgae) from the fishery sector in an input-output model. Then the CF of mariculture products was quantified by integrating process-based inventory data from 19 distinct management practices in China. Compared to P-LCA, IH-LCA method enhances estimation coverage of CF by 9.3%, 5.8%, 28.8%, and 24.7% on average for fish, shrimp, shellfish, and macroalgae, respectively. Further analysis reveals that macroeconomic sectors account for 5.7–46.5% of total CF, with major contributors from handling and warehousing services (33.84%), agricultural technical services (26.39%), and construction-related services (11.01%). For advancing economy-wide low-carbon transitions within the mariculture industry, stakeholders are suggested to look beyond process-based emissions and incorporate impacts from relevant macroeconomic sectors.
与陆地肉类生产系统相比,海洋水产养殖在减少碳足迹(CF)方面具有巨大潜力。然而,传统的基于过程的生命周期评估(P-LCA)方法往往低估了排放量,这是由于被忽视的宏观经济活动造成的截断误差。尽管已经引入了综合混合生命周期评估(IH-LCA)来减轻截断误差,但其在海水养殖业中的应用仍然有限,这主要是因为现有投入产出模型中渔业部门的粒度较粗。此外,海水养殖产品的CF通常在物种水平上进行评估,而不考虑管理做法之间的差异。在这里,首先开发了一种粒度更细的IH-LCA方法,通过在投入产出模型中将渔业部门的海水养殖产品分解为四类(例如,鱼、虾、贝类和大型藻类)。然后,通过整合中国19种不同管理方式的基于过程的库存数据,对海水养殖产品的CF进行量化。与P-LCA方法相比,IH-LCA方法对鱼、虾、贝类和大型藻类的CF估算覆盖率平均分别提高了9.3%、5.8%、28.8%和24.7%。进一步分析显示,宏观经济部门占总CF的5.7-46.5%,主要来自装卸和仓储服务(33.84%)、农业技术服务(26.39%)和建筑相关服务(11.01%)。为了在海水养殖业内推进整个经济的低碳转型,建议利益相关者超越基于过程的排放,并纳入相关宏观经济部门的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon welfare performance: Evidence from a two-stage super-NSBM analysis of Chinese cities 碳福利绩效的时空动态:来自中国城市两阶段超nsbm分析的证据
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108352
Zitong Zhang, Nan Zhang
Urban areas play a critical role in reconciling carbon reduction with welfare enhancement under global carbon neutrality goals. This study evaluates the Carbon Welfare Performance (CWP) of 284 Chinese cities (2000−2023) using a novel two-stage Super-Network Slacks-Based Measure (Super-NSBM) model. By decomposing CWP into green production efficiency (GPE) and welfare transformation efficiency (WTE), we identify significant structural imbalances: while national CWP showed modest growth, this was solely driven by a 38.2% increase in WTE, whereas GPE declined by 31.5%. Spatially, CWP evolved from fragmented clusters to a multi-polar pattern. Dagum Gini decomposition reveals that regional disparities are primarily attributable to cross-regional overlaps rather than simple east-west divisions, with GPE being the main source of inequality. Slack analysis further identifies three inefficiency patterns, which are high redundancy–high emissions, capital inefficiency–structural mismatch, and high output–environmental shortfall, providing a basis for targeted policy interventions. These findings integrate welfare dimensions into carbon efficiency evaluation and offer valuable insights for fostering low-carbon, welfare-enhancing urban transitions in China and other developing economies.
在全球碳中和目标下,城市地区在协调碳减排与福利提升方面发挥着关键作用。本研究采用一种新型的两阶段超级网络懒散测度(Super-NSBM)模型,对中国284个城市(2000 ~ 2023年)的碳福利绩效(CWP)进行了评估。通过将CWP分解为绿色生产效率(GPE)和福利转换效率(WTE),我们发现了显著的结构性失衡:虽然全国CWP表现出温和增长,但这仅仅是由WTE增长38.2%驱动的,而GPE下降了31.5%。在空间上,CWP由碎片化集群向多极格局演化。达格姆基尼系数分解表明,区域差异主要归因于跨区域重叠,而不是简单的东西分割,而GPE是不平等的主要来源。松弛分析进一步确定了三种低效率模式,即高冗余-高排放、资本低效率-结构错配和高产出-环境短缺,为有针对性的政策干预提供了依据。这些发现将福利维度纳入了碳效率评估,为促进中国和其他发展中经济体的低碳、福利型城市转型提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Scenario-based cumulative impacts assessment on iconic species habitats under marine spatial planning and fishing policies in the Yangtze River Estuary 基于情景的长江口海洋空间规划和捕捞政策下标志性物种栖息地累积影响评价
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108356
Ziyu Zhu , Wenhui Yang , Wenbo Cai , Wanting Peng , Chengzhao Wu
Assessing cumulative policy impacts on species habitats is critical for balancing marine conservation and blue economy goals, yet fine-scale evaluations in estuaries remain challenging. This study developed a scenario-based cumulative impact assessment (CIA) framework by integrating species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate the changes in cumulative anthropogenic pressure on the habitats of iconic species under different policy futures for the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE). Three iconic species—Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis), and Osbeck's grenadier anchovy (Coilia mystus)—were selected as focal species. Results indicated that pollution (38.4–43.4%) and shipping (21.7–25.8%) were the dominant pressures affecting the habitats of these focal species across all policy scenarios. Spatial analysis revealed that high-impact zones were predominantly concentrated within shipping-intensive channels. Scenario comparisons showed that Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) implementation significantly reduced cumulative impacts on the habitats of these focal species by 24.5%, whereas a scenario simulating the reopening of commercial fishing increased this pressure by 8.7%. This suggests that, within the modeled framework and for these specific habitats, CMSP is a highly effective policy tool for mitigating key anthropogenic pressures. Given that this analysis is derived from a linear modeling approach and focuses on habitat pressure rather than population dynamics, the conclusions should be regarded as indicative of potential spatial trends within the modeled framework. This spatially explicit, scenario-based case study highlights the value of policy-relevant habitat pressure assessments for informing the management of complex anthropogenic pressures in estuaries. The framework offers a transferable approach for anticipating spatial trade-offs in other multi-use coastal systems, underscoring the need for integrated, context-aware planning to achieve sustainable development.
评估对物种栖息地的累积政策影响对于平衡海洋保护和蓝色经济目标至关重要,但河口的精细评估仍然具有挑战性。通过整合物种分布模型(SDMs),构建了基于情景的累积影响评估框架,以评估不同政策未来下长江口标志性物种栖息地累积人为压力的变化。选择中华鲟(Acipenser sinensis)、中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)和凤尾鱼(Coilia mystus) 3个标志性物种作为重点物种。结果表明,污染(38.4 ~ 43.4%)和航运(21.7 ~ 25.8%)是影响焦点物种生境的主要压力。空间分析显示,高影响区主要集中在航运密集的航道内。情景比较表明,沿海和海洋空间规划(CMSP)的实施显著减少了对这些焦点物种栖息地的累积影响,减少了24.5%,而模拟商业捕捞重新开放的情景使这种压力增加了8.7%。这表明,在模型框架内,对于这些特定的栖息地,CMSP是缓解关键人为压力的一种非常有效的政策工具。鉴于这一分析来自线性建模方法,并侧重于生境压力而非种群动态,结论应被视为在模拟框架内潜在空间趋势的指示。这一空间上明确的、基于场景的案例研究强调了与政策相关的栖息地压力评估对河口复杂人为压力管理的价值。该框架为预测其他多用途沿海系统的空间权衡提供了一种可转移的方法,强调了实现可持续发展的综合、环境意识规划的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Living in harmony with nature: From concept to an index revealing gaps in nature wellbeing and human contributions 与自然和谐相处:从概念到揭示自然福祉和人类贡献差距的指数
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108357
Fangyi Wang , Rui Yang , Joshua D. Fisher
Global conservation goals call for transformative change to address escalating ecological crises. However, current targets, including sustainable development, remain insufficient for enabling effective actions and changes. In this context, living in harmony with nature has emerged as a global vision, yet the goal still lacks an operational definition and sound methods for assessment and tracking. Existing indices often reflect human-centric values and fail to distinguish between measures of outcomes and inputs, limiting their ability to support tailored policy design. In response, this study clarifies the cross-cultural foundations of living in harmony with nature to uncover avenues for cross-cultural integration of the global goal, and introduces the novel Harmony Index as a method for evaluating system states and processes toward this goal. The concept of living in harmony with nature emphasizes the integrity of nature-human systems, acknowledges the intrinsic rights of nature, and recognizes human responsibilities in shaping this relationship. The Harmony Index consists of two complementary sub-indices: the State Index, evaluating the wellbeing of nature and humans, and the Process Index, measuring positive and negative human contributions to nature. An innovative distance-based calculation method, inspired by the Barometer of Sustainability, ensures balanced index integration. Applied to China's mainland (31 provinces), the Harmony Index yields a national score of 71.49. The State Index reveals that nature wellbeing lags behind human wellbeing by 13.49 points nationally and 9.54 provincially. The Process Index highlights limited positive contributions to nature, with a score of 51.82 nationally, and reveals major gaps in ecosystem conservation and climate action. The study further develops province categorization and indicator prioritization methods to demonstrate a strategy for tailored policies. Overall, this study offers a culturally grounded, scalable framework to bridge cultures, science, and policy, enabling governments to track progress and inform effective actions toward living in harmony with nature.
全球保护目标要求进行变革,以应对不断升级的生态危机。然而,目前的目标,包括可持续发展,仍然不足以促成有效的行动和变革。在此背景下,与自然和谐相处已成为一项全球愿景,但这一目标仍然缺乏可操作的定义和可靠的评估和跟踪方法。现有指数往往反映以人为本的价值观,无法区分衡量结果和投入的指标,限制了它们支持量身定制的政策设计的能力。为此,本研究澄清了与自然和谐相处的跨文化基础,揭示了跨文化整合全球目标的途径,并引入了新的和谐指数作为评估系统状态和实现这一目标的过程的方法。与自然和谐相处的概念强调自然-人系统的完整性,承认自然的内在权利,并承认人类在形成这种关系方面的责任。和谐指数由两个互补的子指数组成:国家指数,评估自然和人类的福祉;过程指数,衡量人类对自然的积极和消极贡献。受可持续发展晴雨表的启发,一种创新的基于距离的计算方法确保了指数的平衡整合。将和谐指数应用于中国大陆(31个省份),全国得分为71.49。国家幸福指数显示,全国自然幸福指数落后于人类幸福指数13.49点,省级自然幸福指数落后于人类幸福指数9.54点。过程指数突出了对自然的有限积极贡献,全国得分为51.82,并揭示了生态系统保护和气候行动方面的主要差距。本研究进一步发展了省域分类和指标优先排序方法,以展示有针对性的政策策略。总体而言,本研究提供了一个以文化为基础、可扩展的框架,将文化、科学和政策联系起来,使政府能够跟踪进展情况,并为实现与自然和谐相处的有效行动提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Research on multi-dimensional decision-making method of plastic waste management 塑料废弃物管理多维决策方法研究
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108360
Shujie Zhao , Lile Cai , Quanyin Tan , Jinhui Li , Yufei Qin
In recent years, plastic waste has continued to increase, causing long-term damage to the environment. To reduce direct environmental contamination by plastics disposal processes, it is crucial to quantitatively evaluate plastic waste management methods from environmental, economic, and risk perspectives for optimal process selection. However, standard life cycle assessments (LCA) are unable to address these aspects from both producer and market viewpoints. This study examines four waste management methods of plastic waste—pyrolysis, mechanical recycling, landfilling, and incineration—employing a multi-objective evaluation framework integrating LCA, economic analysis, and risk assessment. Mechanical recycling emerged as the best option, having minimal environmental impact (human health: -16.02E-11, ecosystems: -13.18E−10, and resource scarcity: -31.80E-12), suitable profitability (24.55%), low pollution risk (1.50), and overall optimal benefits. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis showed that electricity (−12.98 to 11.19%) had the greatest impact on the global warming potential of mechanical recycling technologies. This study evaluation of the environmental impacts, economics, and risk levels of different plastic waste management methods as a whole provides theoretical support for practical waste management systems. The results serve as a reference value for the selection and optimization of different plastic waste management methods.
近年来,塑料垃圾持续增加,对环境造成长期损害。为了减少塑料处理过程对环境的直接污染,从环境、经济和风险的角度定量评估塑料废物管理方法以进行最佳工艺选择是至关重要的。然而,标准生命周期评估(LCA)无法从生产者和市场的角度解决这些问题。本研究采用LCA、经济分析和风险评估相结合的多目标评价框架,考察了塑料垃圾的热解、机械回收、填埋和焚烧四种废弃物管理方法。机械回收被认为是最佳选择,其环境影响最小(人类健康:-16.02E-11,生态系统:-13.18E - 10,资源稀稀性:-31.80E-12),适宜的盈利能力(24.55%),低污染风险(1.50),整体效益最优。同时,敏感性分析表明,电力(−12.98 ~ 11.19%)对机械回收技术的全球变暖潜势影响最大。本研究从整体上评价了不同塑料废物管理方法的环境影响、经济效益和风险水平,为实际的废物管理系统提供了理论支持。研究结果对不同塑料废弃物管理方式的选择和优化具有参考价值。
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引用次数: 0
Redefining the environmental performance of building-attached photovoltaics enabled by technological advances: A life-cycle quantification of 268 cities in China 通过技术进步重新定义附着在建筑物上的光伏的环境性能:中国268个城市的生命周期量化
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108353
Ying Wei , Yuan Chang , Yayin Wei
Building-attached photovoltaics (BAPVs) offer a low-carbon pathway for energy transition in China by boosting PV installation while alleviating associated land use pressure. However, the existing environmental footprint data of crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV are mostly outdated due to technological advancements, and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) PV systems still lack region-specific evaluations in China. Using a process-based life-cycle inventory model with updated production data and local energy mixes in China, this study reassessed the greenhouse gas (GHG), SO2, and NOx emissions for monocrystalline silicon (Mono-Si), multicrystalline silicon (Multi-Si), CIGS rooftop, and CIGS facade systems across 268 Chinese cities. The results show that BAPVs in China can reduce GHG emissions by 662 megatons CO2e/yr. While CIGS rooftops (18.3 g CO2e/kWh) outperformed c-Si rooftops (19.9 g CO2e/kWh) in GHG emission mitigation, CIGS facades were significantly carbon intensive (71.8 g CO2e/kWh). Notably, Mono-Si had lower levelized GHG emissions (19.1 g CO2e/kWh) than Multi-Si (20.8 g CO2e/kWh), reversing previous conclusions. A spatial analysis indicated that Northwest China, which is characterized by lower PV degradation rates and rich solar resources, is more suitable for centralized solar farms, whereas East and North China are better candidates for BAPVs because of the large installation areas. This study delivers an updated, China-specific environmental footprint dataset for c-Si and CIGS PV systems and supports the selection of current BAPV technology. The mitigation potential analysis provides the optimal BAPV deployment strategies for guiding low-carbon investments.
建筑光伏(bapv)通过促进光伏安装,同时减轻相关的土地使用压力,为中国的能源转型提供了一条低碳途径。然而,由于技术的进步,现有的晶体硅(c-Si)光伏系统的环境足迹数据大多已经过时,而铜铟镓硒(CIGS)光伏系统在中国仍然缺乏特定区域的评估。本研究利用基于过程的生命周期清单模型,结合最新的生产数据和中国当地的能源组合,重新评估了268个中国城市的单晶硅(Mono-Si)、多晶硅(Multi-Si)、CIGS屋顶和CIGS立面系统的温室气体(GHG)、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放。结果表明,中国bapv可减少温室气体排放6.62亿吨CO2e/年。虽然CIGS屋顶(18.3 g CO2e/kWh)在温室气体减排方面优于c-Si屋顶(19.9 g CO2e/kWh),但CIGS立面的碳强度显著(71.8 g CO2e/kWh)。值得注意的是,Mono-Si的温室气体排放水平(19.1 g CO2e/kWh)低于Multi-Si (20.8 g CO2e/kWh),这与之前的结论相反。空间分析表明,光伏退化率较低、太阳能资源丰富的西北地区更适合建设集中式太阳能发电场,而安装面积较大的华东和华北地区更适合建设bapv。本研究为c-Si和CIGS光伏系统提供了最新的中国特定环境足迹数据集,并支持当前BAPV技术的选择。减缓潜力分析为指导低碳投资提供了最佳的BAPV部署策略。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying environmental impacts on planetary boundaries: A refined and validated impact assessment method 量化对地球边界的环境影响:一种经过改进和验证的影响评估方法
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108355
Qiang Yang, Andrea Paulillo
The Planetary Boundaries (PBs) framework defines a safe operating space (SOS) for humanity and is increasingly applied within in Absolute Environmental Sustainability Assessment (AESA) to evaluate the environmental performance of systems against ecological limits. Integrating PBs into AESA requires methods that express environmental impacts using metrics consistent with the PBs' control variables (CVs). However, existing PBs-based impact assessment methods mainly use proxy indicators or outdated CVs inconsistent with the latest advances in the PBs framework. This misalignment, combined with a lack of validation against empirical data, leads to unreliable and potentially incorrect interpretations of AESA results. Herein, we address these gaps by developing a novel PBs-based impact assessment method (PB-IA) that covers seven PBs and nine CVs, aligns with the latest PBs framework, and is validated against empirical data. Key advances include characterisation factors (CFs) for newly proposed CVs: functional integrity, genetic diversity, N and P surplus, as well as updates to existing CFs to improve their temporal and spatial dynamics. PB-IA provides CFs for 554 environmental flows to Exiobase v3.9.6 and is tested and validated through an environmentally extended multi-regional input–output (EE-MRIO) modelling to quantify PBs' CVs results from global anthropogenic activities. PB-IA results for five CVs are largely consistent with the latest PBs assessments and broader literature, with deviations within ±13%, thus providing an early-stage validation. Larger discrepancies for atmospheric aerosols loading, freshwater consumption, and stratospheric ozone depletion are due to differences in data structures and assumptions in Exiobase. Overall, PB-IA provides a scientifically sound and empirically validated methodology for AESA that expresses environmental pressures directly in the units of PBs' CVs. It is readily applicable to EE-MRIO and adaptable to process-based LCA, thereby supporting science-based policy and decision-making across global and sub-global scales.
行星边界(PBs)框架为人类定义了一个安全的操作空间(SOS),并越来越多地应用于绝对环境可持续性评估(AESA)中,以评估生态限制下系统的环境绩效。将PBs整合到AESA中,需要使用与PBs控制变量(cv)一致的指标来表达环境影响的方法。然而,现有的基于PBs的影响评估方法主要使用代理指标或过时的cv,与PBs框架的最新进展不一致。这种偏差,加上缺乏对经验数据的验证,导致对AESA结果的不可靠和可能不正确的解释。在此,我们通过开发一种新的基于PBs的影响评估方法(PB-IA)来解决这些差距,该方法涵盖了7个PBs和9个cv,与最新的PBs框架保持一致,并根据经验数据进行验证。主要进展包括新提出的生物多样性特征因子(CFs):功能完整性、遗传多样性、N和P盈余,以及对现有CFs的更新以改善其时空动态。PB-IA向Exiobase v3.9.6提供554种环境流量的CFs,并通过环境扩展的多区域投入产出(EE-MRIO)模型进行测试和验证,以量化全球人为活动产生的PBs的cv结果。5个cv的PB-IA结果与最新的PBs评估和更广泛的文献基本一致,偏差在±13%以内,因此提供了早期验证。大气气溶胶负荷、淡水消耗和平流层臭氧消耗的较大差异是由于Exiobase的数据结构和假设的差异。总体而言,PB-IA为AESA提供了一种科学合理且经过经验验证的方法,该方法直接以PBs的cv为单位表达环境压力。它很容易适用于EE-MRIO,并适用于基于过程的LCA,从而支持基于科学的全球和亚全球尺度的政策和决策。
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引用次数: 0
Coupling physical and social resilience in disaster risk governance: Insights from landslide-prone mountain regions of the eastern Tibetan plateau 灾害风险治理中物理和社会弹性的耦合:来自青藏高原东部滑坡易发山区的见解
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108351
Mingyang Li , Yibin Ao , Panyu Peng , Yingying Wang , Jun Liao , Zhongli Zhou , Igor Martek
Despite the widespread application of regional resilience assessments in urban areas, limited attention has been given to the assessment and analysis of rural resilience, particularly regarding the integration of physical exposure risk and social recovery capacity at the county scale. The southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, which is frequently affected by landslides and characterized by fragmented terrain and vulnerable social systems, represents a typical compound risk scenario in mountainous regions. These conditions place higher demands on the adaptive capacity and resilience governance of rural systems. In response, this study developed a dual-dimensional landslide resilience assessment model tailored to mountainous rural areas and conducted an empirical analysis of 40 counties in western Sichuan. Physical resilience was modeled using an integrated approach combining information value modeling, spy sample optimization, and ensemble learning algorithms. Social resilience was assessed through a robustness–resistance–recovery framework, employing a combined entropy–CRITIC weighting method and a grey relational analysis model. Results revealed a southeast-to-northwest decreasing pattern of regional resilience, with some counties showing a concurrence of high physical exposure and low social recovery capacity. Four resilience typologies were further identified, and differentiated governance recommendations were proposed based on the identified driving mechanisms of physical and social resilience. This study provides a scalable and transferable framework for quantifying resilience in high-risk mountainous areas and offers theoretical support for enhancing spatial risk governance and disaster adaptation under complex geomorphic conditions.
尽管区域复原力评估在城市地区得到了广泛应用,但对农村复原力的评估和分析却受到了有限的关注,特别是在县尺度上对物理暴露风险和社会恢复能力的整合。青藏高原东南缘山体滑坡多发,地形破碎,社会系统脆弱,是典型的山地复合风险情景。这些条件对农村系统的适应能力和复原力治理提出了更高的要求。为此,本研究构建了适合山区农村的二维滑坡恢复力评价模型,并对川西地区40个县进行了实证分析。采用信息价值建模、间谍样本优化和集成学习算法相结合的综合方法对物理弹性进行建模。社会弹性通过稳健性-阻力-恢复框架进行评估,采用组合熵-批评家加权法和灰色关联分析模型。结果表明,区域恢复力呈东南向西北递减的格局,部分县表现为高自然暴露和低社会恢复能力并存。进一步确定了四种弹性类型,并根据确定的物理和社会弹性驱动机制提出了差异化的治理建议。该研究为高风险山区恢复力量化提供了可扩展、可转移的框架,为加强复杂地貌条件下的空间风险治理和灾害适应提供了理论支持。
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Environmental Impact Assessment Review
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