How wise is the crowd: Can we infer people are accurate and competent merely because they agree with each other?

Abstract

Are people who agree on something more likely to be right and competent? Evidence suggests that people tend to make this inference. However, standard wisdom of crowds approaches only provide limited normative grounds. Using simulations and analytical arguments, we argue that when individuals make independent and unbiased estimates, under a wide range of parameters, individuals whose answers converge with each other tend to have more accurate answers and to be more competent. In 6 experiments (UK participants, total N = 1197), we show that participants infer that informants who agree have more accurate answers and are more competent, even when they have no priors, and that these inferences are weakened when the informants were systematically biased. In conclusion, we speculate that inferences from convergence to accuracy and competence might help explain why people deem scientists competent, even if they have little understanding of science.