Evaluating China's 2030 carbon peak goal: Post-COVID-19 systematic review

Abstract

Following China's 2020 announcement of its commitment to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, considerable debate has emerged regarding the feasibility of the 2030 carbon peak target. To contribute to this discourse, this review adopts a narrative review, comprehensively analysing 73 publications in the domain of carbon emissions prediction in China post-2020. Moreover, the results show that a predominant view among studies is that China is poised to achieve its carbon peak target from 2027 to 2030, anticipating a peak emission range of approximately 11.60–13.17 Gt CO₂e. Besides, this research provides a comprehensive analysis of the research methodologies, parameter selection, and scenario settings in this field. It offers readers a thorough overview of the area, helping potential researchers to quickly enter the field. Key findings include: (1) the grey model, the artificial intelligence model, the IPAT-derived model, and the system dynamics model are the predominant forecasting models, with the IPAT-derived model being favoured for the national and regional areas and system dynamics for the industry. (2) Scenario settings are typically structured on a 5-year basis, with 3–5 scenarios considered reasonable for policy recommendation as they provide multi-faceted analysis while avoiding information overload and resource wastage. (3) The definition of ‘Carbon Peak’ needs to be taken seriously. Additionally, it highlights current research deficiencies and future directions and provides policy recommendations vital for China's 2030 and 2060 targets.