Stock market responses to economic sanctions: Evaluating the roles of national reserves and financial market access

Abstract

Economic sanctions significantly influence stock market capitalization and have critical implications for the national economy. This study investigates the impact of economic sanctions on stock market capitalization, focusing on the roles of national reserves and financial market access in mitigating these effects, utilizing a sample of 87 countries from 2000 to 2021 and employing a two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach to analyze panel data. The findings reveal that economic sanctions, including trade and financial sanctions, significantly reduce stock market capitalization. However, this negative impact diminishes over time as markets adapt. Moreover, higher national reserves and enhanced financial market accessibility can mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions. Case studies in Russia, Iran, China, and Ukraine further validate these results. This study refines economic models, such as the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and country risk model (CRM), by including sanction intensity, national reserves, and financial market accessibility, offering valuable insights for policymakers and investors dealing with international sanctions.