Sensitivity of Bayesian Networks to Errors in Their Structure.

Abstract

There is a widespread belief in the Bayesian network (BN) community that while the overall accuracy of the results of BN inference is not sensitive to the precision of parameters, it is sensitive to the structure. We report on the results of a study focusing on the parameters in a companion paper, while this paper focuses on the BN graphical structure. We present the results of several experiments in which we test the impact of errors in the BN structure on its accuracy in the context of medical diagnostic models. We study the deterioration in model accuracy under structural changes that systematically modify the original gold standard model, notably the node and edge removal and edge reversal. Our results confirm the popular belief that the BN structure is important, and we show that structural errors may lead to a serious deterioration in the diagnostic accuracy. At the same time, most BN models are forgiving to single errors. In light of these results and the results of the companion paper, we recommend that knowledge engineers focus their efforts on obtaining a correct model structure and worry less about the overall precision of parameters.