Predicting Response to [177Lu]Lu-PSMA Therapy in mCRPC Using Machine Learning.

Abstract

Background/objectives: Radioligandtherapy (RLT) with [177Lu]Lu-PSMA has been newly introduced as a routine treatment for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, not all patients can tolerate the entire therapeutic sequence, and in some cases, the treatment may prove ineffective. In real-world conditions, the aim is to distinguish between patients who fully benefit from treatment (those who respond effectively and tolerate the entire therapeutic sequence) and those who do not respond or cannot tolerate the entire sequence. This study explores predictive factors to distinguish between fully beneficial RLT treatment patients (FBTP) and not fully beneficial RLT treatment patients (NFBTP). The objective was to enhance the understanding of predictive factors influencing RLT effectiveness and to highlight the significance of machine learning in optimizing patient selection for treatment planning.

Methods: Data from 25 mCRPC patients, categorized as FBTP (11) or NFBTP (14) to RLT, were analyzed. The dataset included clinical, imaging, and biological parameters. Data analysis techniques, including exploratory data analysis and feature engineering, were used to develop machine learning models for predicting patient outcomes.

Results: Imaging data analysis revealed statistically significant differences in the renal uptake intensity of Choline between the two groups. A discordance of FDG+ and PSMA- was identified as a potential indicator of NFBTP. The integration of biological data enhanced the model's predictive capability, achieving an accuracy of 0.92, a sensitivity of 0.96, and a precision of 0.96. Adding blood parameters like neutrophils, leukocytes, and alkaline phosphatase greatly increased prediction accuracy.

Conclusions: This study emphasizes the significance of an integrated approach that merges imaging and biological data, thereby augmenting the predictive accuracy of patient outcomes in RLT with [177Lu]Lu-PSMA. In particular, including Choline PET among the imaging parameters provides unique insights into the predictive factors affecting RLT efficacy. This approach not only deepens the understanding of predictive factors but also underscores the utility of machine learning in refining the patient selection process for optimized treatment planning.