Practical considerations of promising zone design for interim sample size Re-estimation: An application to GRAPHITE for graft vs host disease

Abstract

Background

Sample size calculation and power estimate are an integral part of clinical trials. With accelerated development to address the unmet medical needs, the fast-paced development may lead to uncertainties in initial planning and assumptions of clinical trials. Promising zone design presents sponsors an opportunity to re-estimate the sample size based on the interim data to mitigate risks, reduce uncertainties, and increase probability of trial success.

Methods

This paper aims to use the GRAPHITE trial (NCT03657160) as a real data application to showcase the practical considerations in implementation of promising zone design for interim sample size re-estimation (SSR), in light of sample size adaptation rules, maximum sample size allowed, multiplicity adjustment, and sponsor access to interim results. GRAPHITE is a phase 3 trial with vedolizumab for prophylaxis of acute graft vs host disease (aGvHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (allo-HSCT). The primary efficacy endpoint is lower intestinal aGVHD-free survival by Day +180 after allo-HSCT. A simulation study was conducted to demonstrate the evaluation of operating characteristics by various true underlying treatment effects at the design stage.

Conclusion

The application of promising zone design for interim SSR is novel and has successfully helped the sponsor achieve the balance between minimizing the risks and maintaining scientific integrity. This work aims to highlight the necessity of empirical guidance to gain better insights for clinical researchers in practice and is expected to facilitate the understanding and implementation of promising zone design for interim SSR in phase 3 trials.