Assessing the vulnerability of Cape Coral, Florida, to sea level rise using principal component analysis (2020–2050)

Abstract

Sea level rise is a consequence of global climate change that has been affecting U.S. coasts with floods and storm surges. Florida is highly vulnerable because it has low-lying topography and coastlines on both the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The City of Cape Coral, southwest Florida, has 400 miles of canals that provide waterfront property to the residents. Most of the canals are navigable, and accessible to the Gulf of Mexico. The city is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise because of its canals, site between the Matlacha Pass and the Caloosahatchee River, and development that has occurred in hazard prone areas. In this research, we used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Rise Calculator tool for three sea level rise scenarios for Cape Coral from 2020 to 2050 and created a Cape Coral Vulnerability Index (CCVI) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). PCA reduced 25 variables to six factors that explained 78 % of the variance in the data. The study revealed that the whole city has a medium to high vulnerability to sea level rise induced coastal flooding. Projected flooding showed the vulnerable areas for future flooding, whereas CCVI identified the vulnerable populations and their locations in the city. One important finding is that both economically stable and poor people are vulnerable in Cape Coral. This research has significant implications in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. It can act as a guideline for the city for disaster management.