Wasim Abbas, M A Masud, Sajida Parveen, Hyojung Lee, Sangil Kim
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Introduction: In this study, we used a mathematical epidemic model to explore the status of the HIV epidemic in the USA and Pakistan. In addition to studying the dynamics of the model, we fitted the model with recent data to estimate the parameters describing the epidemic in both countries.
Results: Our estimation shows that in the USA, the reproduction number is 0.9688 (0.9684, 0.9694); if the reproduction number is maintained at this level, it would take a long time to eradicate HIV entirely. Meanwhile, it is 2.2599 (2.2556, 2.2656) in Pakistan, which is due to a lack of awareness in the confirmed group and a lower rate of maintained treatment. We also estimated the rate of vertical transmission, which plays a significant role in Pakistan but not in the USA.
Discussion: We conclude that improving the screening rate and educating people would be effective for controlling HIV in Pakistan, whereas improved screening rate in the USA can eradicate HIV faster.
期刊介绍：
Frontiers in Public Health is a multidisciplinary open-access journal which publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research and is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians, policy makers and the public worldwide. The journal aims at overcoming current fragmentation in research and publication, promoting consistency in pursuing relevant scientific themes, and supporting finding dissemination and translation into practice.
Frontiers in Public Health is organized into Specialty Sections that cover different areas of research in the field. Please refer to the author guidelines for details on article types and the submission process.
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