We all fall for it: Influence of driving experience, level of cognitive control engaged and actual exposure to the driving situations on the Dunning-Kruger effect

Abstract

The Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE), a widely recognized phenomenon, reveals that individuals with lower skills tend to overrate their abilities, while high achievers often underestimate themselves. This intriguing trend has been explored in the realm of car driving using an innovative, purpose-built methodology. This methodology integrates visual presentations of specific driving scenarios for self-assessment alongside the analysis of actual driving behaviours gathered through driving simulation. Our study recruited both inexperienced, non-drivers and seasoned, licensed drivers to delve into three key aspects: (i) explore how the acquisition of skills through extensive real-world experience influences the DKE pattern, (ii) refine the process of recalibrating self-assessed skills subsequent to a brief encounter with the tasks and (iii) determine how the DKE is affected by varying degrees of cognitive control required to execute diverse driving tasks. The data consistently confirms the DKE across driving situations, highlighting its universality. Novice and seasoned drivers both display the pattern before and after the simulated drive, regardless of the associated level of cognitive control, indicating that experienced drivers are prone to the same misestimation tendencies as novices. Novices’ self-assessments notably increased after experiencing the simulated drive, while experienced drivers’ estimations remained stable. This observation could be interpreted as the dual curse of ignorance at work. This research offers valuable insights into the dynamics of self-assessment over time, shedding light on how driving experience and task exposure impact individuals’ perceptions of their own abilities.