[Mechanism of Transportation Capacity Influence on Carbon Emission of Transportation Sector at China Provincial Scale from a Spatial Perspectiv].

Abstract

Transportation carbon emissions （TCE） are a major contributor to emissions, and their emission reduction pathway can provide recommendations for the overall carbon emission reduction decision-making. Therefore, identifying the impact mechanism of transportation capacity on TCE through scientific methods has become an important foundation to respond to the national "dual-carbon" strategy. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021, a dynamic spatial dubin model （SDM） was included to empirically analyze the dynamic spatial spillover effects of transportation capacity on carbon emissions from China's transportation sector, taking correlation and heterogeneity into account. The results were as follows： ① There was regional spatial correlation in carbon emissions from China's transportation sector, and this situation was becoming increasingly evident in time series. ② Transportation capacity had a positive impact on the carbon emission reduction of the local transport sector, which fluctuated, but the negative value was not less than -1.212%. There may have been an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship between the transportation capacity and the carbon emissions of the transport sector in a region. ③ Transportation capacity reduced TCE through economic level with a coefficient of 0.204%, but the opposite result was observed for the level of investment in the transportation sector. ④ The effect of transportation capacity on carbon emissions varied widely in different regions of China. Those of North and Central were significantly negative, and that of Central was consistent with the national level. The research results can provide reference to formulate differentiated policies for different regions and achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.