A climate-based metapopulation malaria model with human travel and treatment

Abstract

A climate-based metapopulation malaria model is formulated by incorporating human travel between zones with varying climatic factors, effective and counterfeit drug treatments, and time-periodic parameters for the mosquito population to understand the effect of human travel on malaria transmission. We study the existence, uniqueness, and stability of positive periodic solutions in the model and carry out numerical simulations for three climatic zones of Ghana. The study shows that the climate effects introduce fluctuations in the solutions, while human travel between zones affects the disease prevalence in each zone and the local transmission dynamics of malaria. We observed different outcomes depending on various restrictions imposed on human travels. The study also suggests that it is essential to ban the sale, importation or manufacture of counterfeit drugs and punish the offenders to ensure the effective use of high-quality drugs in the population.