[Current and predicted disease burden in middle aged and elderly population aged 55 years and above in Shenzhen, 2016-2030].

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the disease burden in middle-aged and elderly population aged ≥55 in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2030 and provide evidence for the development of healthy aging strategies. Methods: The years of life lost (YLL), years lost due to disability (YLD), and the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) in this population from 2016 to 2022 were calculated. Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend. Bayesian age-period-cohort model and grey system model were used to predict YLL, YLD, and DALY in this population in 2030. Results: From 2016 to 2022, the crude DALY rate showed a transient fluctuation in age group 55-74 years, but a pronounced increase in age group ≥85 years. The proportions of YLL and YLD due to non-communicable diseases in all age groups was considerably higher than those due to communicable and nutritional diseases and injuries. In 2022, in all age groups, the YLL due to neoplasms (55-74 years old) and cardiovascular disease (≥75 years old) ranked first, and the YLD due to musculoskeletal disorder ranked first. By 2030, the causes of YLL and YLD ranking first in each age group would be remained, while the ranks of some causes would increase. Conclusions: The age specific characteristics of current and predicted disease burden differed in individuals aged ≥55 years. Therefore, it is necessary to allocate social and medical resources according to the disease burden pattern.