中华流行病学杂志最新文献

To explore the application of sequential analysis in post-market safety dynamic surveillance of vaccines. Under the dynamic monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, this research introduces the fundamental principles of maximizing sequential probability ratio test (MaxSPRT) and Bayesian sequential analysis, employing R software. Through an example of dynamic safety monitoring data of vaccines post-market approval, we analyze using the MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis. The MaxSPRT identified a safety signal in week 4 (P<0.05), while Bayesian sequential analysis indicated that the 95% highest density interval for the RR value at week 4 is 1.13-3.27, suggesting the first appearance of a safety signal at week 4. The MaxSPRT and Bayesian sequential analysis effectively leverage continuously accumulating dynamic monitoring data, thereby serving as a valuable method for post-market safety surveillance of vaccines.

Objective: To analyze the incidence and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis B in China from 2006 to 2020 and provide reference for hepatitis B prevention and control. Methods: The incidence data of hepatitis B in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2006 to 2020 were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence trend analysis was conducted by using software Joinpoint 5.0.2, and the spatiotemporal scan analysis was performed by using software SaTScan 10.1.2. Results: From 2006 to 2020, a total of 1 049 546 cases of acute hepatitis B were reported in China. The average annual reported incidence rate was 5.17/100 000. The reported incidence rate showed a decreasing trend during this period. The incidence decreased from 3.00/100 000 to 0.41/100 000 in age group 0-14 years, from 14.15/100 000 to 3.44/100 000 in age group 15-34 years, and from 6.87/100 000 to 3.72/100 000 in age group ≥35 years, the differences were all significant (all P<0.001). From 2006 to 2020, a total of 10 732 017 cases of chronic hepatitis B were reported in China. The average annual reported incidence rate was 52.85/100 000. The reported incidence of chronic hepatitis B varied in different age groups, which decreased from 11.38/100 000 to 2.18/100 000 in age group 0-14 years, and from 73.17/100 000 to 61.40/100 000 in age group 15-34 years, while increased from 48.07/100 000 to 90.75/100 000 in age group ≥35 years, the differences were all significant (all P<0.05). Spatiotemporal scan analysis indicated that the age of reported acute hepatitis B cases became older over time, and the regions with high-incidence gradually shifted from western China to southwestern China. The overall reported incidence of chronic hepatitis B in those aged ≥35 years showed an upward trend, and the regions with high-incidence were mainly found in coastal area in southeastern China and in southwestern China. Conclusions: From 2006 to 2020, the overall reported incidence of acute hepatitis B in China showed a continuous downward trend, while the reported incidence of chronic hepatitis B in those aged ≥35 years showed an upward trend. It indicated that the need to improve the diagnosis and treatment of chronic hepatitis B in adults in coastal area in southeastern China and southwestern China.

Objective: To understand the characteristics of faculty in high-level public health schools in China, and analyze the differences in age, area and school level. Methods: Based on the internet information, the faculty information of 18 high-level public health schools was collected for a descriptive analysis on faculty characteristics. Results: There were 1 642 faculty members in the schools of public health in China, in whom 51.8% were women, 92.8% had doctorate, 32.4% had postdoctoral experience and 56.8% were former students staying to teach. The average age of the faculty members was (45.6±9.8) years. Meanwhile the top three study subjects were epidemiology and health statistics (31.0%), occupational health and environmental sanitation (16.5%), and health toxicology (16.3%). In the faculty members aged >40 years, 90.2% had doctorate, 62.6% were former students staying to teach, and 24.7% had no educational background of public health. The proportions of faculty members aged ≤40 years in the three groups mentioned above were 98.2%, 45.8% and 39.1% respectively. In terms of study subject, big data study were mainly conducted in the schools with top subject ranking and the schools in developed areas. Conclusions: The public health faculty was characterized by cross education background and high capability. The study subjects and sub-disciplines varied with schools and areas.

Objective: To predict the monthly incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hebei Province by using the generalized additive model (GAM). Methods: The incidence data of HFRS in Hebei from 2006 to 2020 were collected, and the correlation coefficients between meteorological factors and the monthly incidence of HFRS in Hebei were analyzed by Spearman's correlation, and the meteorological factors were lagged by 0-6 orders, and those with the largest absolute values of the correlation coefficients were screened to be included in the multifactorial GAM to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors. Results: The monthly incidence of HFRS had the strongest correlation with monthly mean air temperature at lag order 2, monthly mean wind speed at lag order 0, monthly mean sunshine at lag order 4, monthly mean precipitation at lag order 2 and monthly mean humidity at lag order 1, which were diagnosed by the variance inflation factor and included in the multifactorial GAM, and the results showed significant differences among the factors (all P<0.001), and they showed non-linear relationships with the monthly incidence of HFRS. Mean monthly temperature was an important factor influencing HFRS incidence. Mean monthly air temperature, mean monthly sunshine and mean monthly wind speed were negatively associated with HFRS incidence, whereas mean monthly precipitation and mean monthly humidity were positively associated with HFRS incidence. Conclusions: There was a complex non-linear relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFRS. GAM incorporated with lagged meteorological factors can be used to predict the incidence of HFRS in Hebei.

Objective: To investigate the prevalence of sexual drug use in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chengdu and analyze the relationship between depression and sexual drug use. Methods: A total of 1 277 MSM were recruited between November 2021 and May 2022. Questionnaire was used to collect information about their demographic characteristics, depression status and sexual drug use behavior. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the relationship between depression and sexual drug use. Results: In the 1 277 MSM, assessment identified 503 mild depression cases (39.4%), 196 moderate depression cases (15.3%) and 171 severe depression cases (13.4%) and 444 MSM (34.8%) reported sexual drug use in the past 6 months. Multivariate logistic regression models showed that compared with non-depression, mild depression (aOR=1.67,95%CI:1.24-2.23), moderate depression (aOR=1.50,95%CI: 1.02-2.19) and severe depression (aOR=1.56,95%CI:1.04-2.32) were positively associated with sexual drug use. Conclusions: The prevalence of depression and sexual drug use were high in MSM in Chengdu. There was a positive correlation between depression and sexual drug use. It is necessary to pay close attention to depression and sexual drug use and conduct targeted intervention in MSM.

Objective: To investigate the sero-conversion rate of HIV antibody and influencing factors in cross-border couples in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture(Dehong). Methods: A cohort design was used to recruit HIV-negative people in cross-border couples in Dehong in 2017. Follow-up was conducted in 2023, and questionnaire survey and HIV test were carried out to calculate the sero-conversion rate of HIV antibody. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the influence factors for HIV infections. Results: A total of 36 278 HIV-negative persons in cross-border couples were included in the 2017 baseline survey, of whom 22 438 (61.9%) were tested in follow-up in 2023. The sero-conversion rate between 2017 and 2023 was 0.51% (115/22 438). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that length of marriage <6 years, Jingpo ethnic group, education level of primary school or below, drug use, illegal marriage and HIV infected spouse were the risk factors of HIV infection in male spouses, and length of marriage <6 years, Jingpo ethnic group, illegal marriage and HIV infected spouse were the risk factors in female spouses. Conclusions: The sero-conversion rate of HIV antibody in cross-border couples in Dehong was relatively high. HIV infection was mainly caused by secondary transmission in the couples, and men might also be infected through drug use. It is necessary to strengthen the registration and management of cross-border couples, especially the couples with discordant HIV infection status, and the intervention in drug users to reduce the risk for secondary transmission of HIV in the cross-border couples.

Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) R&D Blueprint for Epidemics released the 2024 priority pathogen list. Over 200 scientists around the world evaluated the evidences of transmissions, virulences of 1 652 pathogens and the availability of medical countermeasures in two years. Finally, 33 pathogens that could potentially cause the next pandemic were included in the priority pathogen list. This list introduces the scientific framework of "family-priority pathogen-prototype pathogen", emphasizing the importance of studying entire pathogen family rather than specific pathogen. The list can be used to guide and coordinate the research and development of medical countermeasures, including vaccine, blood product, antibody, antimicrobial or antiviral drug, diagnostic test, and personal protective equipment, thereby improving the global rapid response to unknown infectious disease threats. This article summarizes the scientific background and main contents of the WHO priority pathogen list and the enlightenment for pandemic preparedness in the development of medical countermeasures in China to provide reference for the disease prevention and control in China.

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological, etiological and genetic characteristics of influenza virus in Shandong Province during 2023-2024. Methods: The surveillance data of influenza-like illness (ILI) in sentinel hospitals in Shandong from 2023 to 2024 were collected and analyzed. The isolated influenza strains with hemagglutination titers ≥8 were selected for antigenicity analysis, drug susceptibility test, gene sequencing and evolutionary analysis. Results: From 2023 to 2024, the positive rate of influenza virus in Shandong was 8.51% (23 663/277 995), the highest positive rate was in the age group of 5-14 years (15.78%, 6 073/38 478), and the highest positive rate was in the 49^th week (35.86%, 2 264/6 313). Both antigenicity analysis and evolutionary analysis showed that the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype and B(Victoria) strain had good matching effect and close evolutionary distance with the 2023-2024 surveillance year vaccine strain. The A(H3N2) subtype strain did not have a high matching effect with the 2023-2024 vaccine strain and had a long evolutionary distance, but had a close evolutionary distance with the 2024-2025 vaccine strain. Drug susceptibility test showed that oseltamivir sensitivity of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strain decreased greatly, and the amino acid site mutation of neuraminidase was H275Y. Conclusions: In the 2023-2024 surveillance year, the peak of influenza virus epidemic in Shandong was mainly occurred in winter and spring, and the age group of 5-14 years was the focus of prevention and control. The dominant strain was subtype A(H3N2), which had poor matching effect with the vaccine strain in the 2023-2024 surveillance year. One A(H1N1)pdm09 resistant strain was found in the drug resistance monitoring work. Follow-up prevention and control work should be strengthen the surveillance for the epidemiological characteristics, genetic variation and drug resistance of influenza viruses, timely understand the epidemic trend and mutation of influenza viruses, timely discover drug-resistant strains of influenza viruses, promote influenza vaccination, and improve of influenza prevention and control.

Objective: To explore the association between physical activity (PA) level and all-cause mortality in the elderly with different obesity status in Beijing. Methods: The study subjects were from the Cardiovascular and Cognitive Healthy Study in Middle-Aged and Elderly Residents of Beijing, a total of 3 746 individuals aged ≥60 years in the baseline survey between 2013 and 2015 were included in the study. Questionnaire survey and physical examination were conducted to collect the basic information of the individuals. The metabolic equivalent of the elderly was used to calculate the PA level, and an international PA questionnaire was used to determine the PA intensity. BMI, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and a body shape index (ABSI) were used to evaluate individuals' obesity status. The distribution of different PA levels under different obesity states was described by using bar chart and cumulative percentage bar chart. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the correlation between the level of PA and all-cause mortality risk in different types of obesity status. Results: By December 31, 2019, the median follow-up time was 5.46 years, and the mortality density was 244.55/10 000 person-years. Compared with the individuals in high-PA intensity group, the all-cause mortality risk increased by 41% (HR=1.41, 95%CI: 1.14-1.76) and 122% (HR=2.22, 95%CI: 1.76-2.81), respectively, in moderate and low PA intensity groups. Compared with the individuals in high-PA intensity-high-obesity group, based on the BMI, the all-cause mortality risk increased by 85% (HR=1.85, 95%CI: 1.08-3.16) and 250% (HR=3.50, 95%CI: 2.01-6.10) in those in moderate-PA intensity-high-obesity group and in low-intensity-high-obesity group. Based on the WHtR, the all-cause mortality risk increased by 53% (HR=1.53, 95%CI: 1.02-2.29) and 218% (HR=3.18, 95%CI: 2.09-4.86), respectively, in those with moderate-PA intensity-high-obesity and those with low-PA intensity-high-obesity. According to the ABSI, the all-cause mortality risk increased by 120% in those in low-PA intensity-high-obesity group (HR=2.20, 95%CI: 1.53-3.18). Based on any one of the indicators BMI, WHtR, or ABSI, there was no significant difference in all-cause mortality risk between high-intensity-moderate-obesity group and high-intensity-low-obesity group (all P>0.05). Conclusions: PA level is closely associated with the all-cause mortality risk in the elderly in communities of Beijing. Increasing PA level can not only reduce the all-cause mortality risk but also reduce even eliminate the excess all-cause mortality risk associated with obesity.

Objective: To analyze the effectiveness of multicomponent exercise (ME) in old adults, and provide reference for the promotion of healthy aging. Methods: Literature on ME intervention for old adults published until February 29, 2024 were retrieved from Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, EBSCO, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang Data, and VIP Database. After screening and evaluation, an umbrella review was conducted. Results: In total, 15 systematic reviews and Meta-analyzes (193 randomized controlled trials and 19 203 participants) were included. The umbrella review suggested that the average standardized mean difference (SMD) affecting physical function/health of ME was between 0.40 and 1.00, the average SMD affecting brain health was between -0.30 and 1.60, the average SMD affecting mood/mental health was between 0.01 and 0.20, and the average SMD affecting quality of life was between -0.20 and 0.40. Effects of ME on lower limb strength [mean difference (MD)=1.1] and aerobic capacity (MD=0.8) were better compared with general strength exercise and aerobic exercise respectively. Effects of ME on cognitive function (MD=0.99) were better compared with strength exercise (MD=0.84), aerobic exercise (MD=0.77), and mind-body exercise (MD=0.63). Effects of ME on executive function (MD=0.72) were better compared with aerobic exercise (MD=0.62), strength exercise (MD=0.44), and mind-body exercise (MD=0.36). Effects of ME on activity of daily living (SMD=0.32) were better compared with strength exercise (SMD=0.12). Conclusions: ME can clearly improve the physical function/health and brain health in old adults. The impact varies with different participants, exercise program designs, and assessment methods. However, its effect on mood/mental health and the quality of life still need further verification. ME might show better effects compared with general single component exercise (such as strength exercise, aerobic exercise) and mind-body exercise in improving lower limb strength, aerobic capacity, cognitive function, executive function, and activity of daily living in specific elderly populations. Given the impact of the quantity, quality and heterogeneity of the reviews included, the conclusions mentioned above still need validation in practice.