Association between NT-proBNP levels and risk of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Abstract

Background and aims: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a well-established biomarker in clinical practice, particularly for heart failure, but its role in predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) risk is not fully understood. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association between NT-proBNP levels and AF incidence, and to explore the potential of NT-proBNP in enhancing AF risk prediction models.

Methods: We systematically searched databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and Scopus) up to August 2024 for prospective studies that reported associations between baseline NT-proBNP levels and incident AF. HRs or relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were pooled using random-effects models.

Results: This analysis included 136 089 participants from 16 cohorts, with 8017 incident AF cases. Elevated NT-proBNP levels were associated with a higher risk of developing AF (top vs bottom quartile, RR=3.84, 95% CI 3.03 to 4.87; per SD increment, RR=1.70, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.88). A significant non-linear dose-response relationship was observed (P_{non-linearity}<0.05), and stronger associations were noted in older populations and when serum samples were used. Adding NT-proBNP to traditional AF risk models improved predictive accuracy, suggesting its value in AF risk stratification.

Conclusions: NT-proBNP levels are strongly associated with an increased risk of AF, particularly in older adults. Incorporating NT-proBNP into risk prediction models may enhance early identification of individuals at risk of AF, with potential implications for population-based screening.

Prospero registration number: CRD42024538714.