Global progress towards the Coal: Tracking coal reserves, coal prices, electricity from coal, carbon emissions and coal phase-out

Abstract

Coal remains a significant energy source globally, with the United States holding a substantial portion of the world’s coal reserves but it creates the dangerous effects of global warming. Despite its abundance, questions arise regarding the accessibility and environmental impact of coal reserves. Therefore, this research forecasted the future of coal reserves, coal prices, electricity from coal, carbon emissions and coal phase-out targets globally using the SARIMAX Python® model for the study period 2023 to 2050 by using the economic data from the year 1980 to 2022. It is found that, the global coal reserve capacity is 1.07 trillion tons with an average coal prices vary with region to region, ranging from US $130 per tone to US $206 per tone until 2050. The global production of electricity from coal will also increase from 10415.49 TWh in 2023 to 13316.57 TWh until 2040 and 15243.36 TWh until 2050 which ultimately enhances the production of carbon emissions, increases from 157,768 billion metric tons in 2023 to 188,535 billion metric tons until 2040 and 215,077 billion metric tons until 2050. Furthermore, this study undertakes and presented the country wise examination of coal phase out and it is found that in many countries 75% of coal will phase out by 2030 and 100% by 2040 for meeting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1.5 0C targets. Therefore there is a dire need to shift towards cleaner energy sources, leading to a decline in coal-fired power generation and a trend towards coal phase-out.