Multi-attribute-based procedure for seismic loss scenario in a historical area

Abstract

Seismic events have shown to be exceedingly damaging to structures over time, with serious social and economic consequences. As a result, large-scale seismic risk assessments are essential for reducing the potential damage from future earthquakes. Therefore, the proposed study attempts to examine the vulnerability and risk of unreinforced masonry buildings (URM) placed in aggregate conditions in a historical area of the city centre of Lisbon. To this purpose, a comprehensive exposure model was developed combining satellite remote sensing, GIS software, and census data. Subsequently, seismic hazard was evaluated in the area, considering both Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and macro-seismic intensity for different return periods (i.e. 2-50-100-475-975-2500-5000 years). Vulnerability was assessed by introducing a novel approach to earthquake risk assessment using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making methodologies. Specifically, the method employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) computational methods to evaluate parameter weights and vulnerability index. Damage scenarios, fragility curves and mean damage ratios curves were provided to offer an overview of the vulnerability of the assets exposed to risk. Finally, the expected consequences were evaluated in terms of direct economic losses showing an economic loss of 595 M€ for a 475-years return period, while 1108 M€ for 5000-years. This study significantly enhances seismic analysis for urban areas by introducing a Multi-Criteria Approach. This method simplifies vulnerability assessment, ensuring ease of application and reproducibility. Its insights offer valuable support for disaster risk management decisions, facilitating the implementation of resilience and risk-reduction strategies.