A shifting chessboard: Projections of prawn, capelin, mesopelagic fish, zooplankton, and their Nordic and Barents Seas food web under climate change

IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Progress in Oceanography Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI:10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103387
Ina Nilsen, Cecilie Hansen, Isaac C. Kaplan
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Abstract

As climate change is already altering ocean temperatures, there is an urgent need to understand how environmental changes will affect marine ecosystems. Although great efforts have been made to understand the impacts of ocean warming, there are still uncertainties regarding effects on lower trophic levels and how these may propagate to higher trophic levels. In this study, physics from three different climate projections (SPP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were applied to study the impact of rising temperatures in the Nordic and Barents Seas Atlantis ecosystem model (NoBa Atlantis). We also included variation in phyto- and zooplankton levels to account for the uncertainty regarding how lower trophic levels might respond to climate change. This approach by us is the first study where three different sets of physics have been applied to an end-to-end ecosystem model representing the Nordic and Barents Seas. We therefore treat the projected results with caution, and focus on the underlying mechanisms that drive the changes, to inform future ecosystem studies. The spatial nature of the model (a “shifting chessboard”) allowed us to study how local changes in temperature and prey could affect entire populations. For instance, the thermal niches of mesopelagic fish allowed for an increase in abundance in northern areas, benefiting predators such as blue whiting. On the other hand, thermal limits of capelin together with zooplankton overlap resulted in declines, which subsequently led to reduction in cod growth. This study demonstrates how ecosystem studies could benefit from both modeling and empirical studies that consider not only broad-brush impacts on primary production and trophic transfer, but also spatial considerations of local predator–prey interactions, thermal habitat and spawning-area suitability.
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由于气候变化已经在改变海洋温度,因此迫切需要了解环境变化将如何影响海洋生态系统。尽管人们已经做出巨大努力来了解海洋变暖的影响,但在对低营养级的影响以及这些影响如何传播到高营养级方面仍存在不确定性。在这项研究中,我们应用了三种不同气候预测(SPP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5)的物理数据,研究温度上升对北欧和巴伦支海亚特兰蒂斯生态系统模型(NoBa Atlantis)的影响。我们还纳入了浮游植物和浮游动物水平的变化,以考虑低营养级如何应对气候变化的不确定性。我们的这一方法是首次将三套不同的物理方法应用于代表北欧和巴伦支海的端到端生态系统模型的研究。因此,我们对预测结果持谨慎态度,重点关注驱动变化的潜在机制,为未来的生态系统研究提供信息。该模型的空间性质("移动棋盘")使我们能够研究温度和猎物的局部变化如何影响整个种群。例如,中上层鱼类的热生态位使北部地区的鱼类数量增加,从而使蓝鳕等捕食者受益。另一方面,毛鳞鱼的热极限与浮游动物重叠导致数量下降,进而导致鳕鱼生长量减少。这项研究表明,生态系统研究可以从建模和实证研究中获益,建模和实证研究不仅要考虑对初级生产和营养传递的广泛影响,还要考虑当地捕食者与猎物之间的相互作用、热栖息地和产卵区适宜性等空间因素。
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来源期刊
Progress in Oceanography
Progress in Oceanography 地学-海洋学
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
4.90%
发文量
138
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Progress in Oceanography publishes the longer, more comprehensive papers that most oceanographers feel are necessary, on occasion, to do justice to their work. Contributions are generally either a review of an aspect of oceanography or a treatise on an expanding oceanographic subject. The articles cover the entire spectrum of disciplines within the science of oceanography. Occasionally volumes are devoted to collections of papers and conference proceedings of exceptional interest. Essential reading for all oceanographers.
期刊最新文献
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