Forestry policy effectiveness and performance evaluation in China - Quantitative study based on policy texts 1998–2020

Abstract

Since 1998, the Chinese Government has implemented a plethora of forestry policies aimed at promoting ecological restoration, forest ecological construction, and forestry economic development. However, there is a dearth of studies that quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these policies and assess their performance from the perspective of policy text. To address this gap, this study examined 1419 forestry policy documents issued at the national level in China from 1998 to 2020. The study developed quantitative assessment criteria for the effectiveness of forestry policies across four dimensions: policy strength, policy measures, policy feedback, and policy objectives. It also empirically analyzed the impact and contribution of these policies on forest ecological construction and the development of the forestry economy. The results indicate that: (1) Between 1998 and 2020, China's forestry policy has notably fostered an increase in forest resources and improved forest quality, thereby significantly advancing the forestry economy. This underscores the premise that safeguarding forest resources is conducive to both the expansion and fortification of the forestry economy and that protection does not impede development. (2) Influenced by natural conditions, level of economic development, degree of policy implementation and other factors, China's forestry policy effects have significant regional heterogeneity. (3) In terms of forestry policy effectiveness, policy strength exerts the most significant influence on forest ecological construction and economic development, succeeded by policy feedback, measures, and objectives, respectively. This research underscores the crucial role of the Chinese government in fostering the concurrent advancement of forest resource conservation and forestry economic development. Furthermore, this study broadens the quantitative assessment methodologies within the realm of forestry policy studies.