The impact of natural climate variability on the global distribution of Aedes aegypti: a mathematical modelling study

IF 24.1 1区医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI:10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00238-9

Alexander R Kaye MSc , Uri Obolski PhD , Lantao Sun PhD , William S Hart DPhil , Prof James W Hurrell PhD , Prof Michael J Tildesley PhD , Robin N Thompson PhD

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Abstract

Background

Aedes aegypti spread pathogens affecting humans, including dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses. Anthropogenic climate change is altering the spatial distribution of Ae aegypti and therefore the locations at risk of vector-borne disease. In addition to climate change, natural climate variability, resulting from internal atmospheric processes and interactions between climate system components (eg, atmosphere–land and atmosphere–ocean interactions), determines climate outcomes. However, the role of natural climate variability in modifying the effects of anthropogenic climate change on future environmental suitability for Ae aegypti has not been assessed fully. In this study, we aim to assess uncertainty arising from natural climate variability in projections of Ae aegypti suitability up to the year 2100.

Methods

In this mathematical modelling study, we developed an ecological model in which Ae aegypti population dynamics depend on climate variables (temperature and rainfall). We used 100 projections of future climate from the Community Earth System Model, a comprehensive climate model that simulates natural climate variability as well as anthropogenic climate change, in combination with our ecological model to generate a range of equally plausible scenarios describing the global distribution of suitable conditions for Ae aegypti up to 2100. Each of these scenarios corresponds to a single climate projection, allowing us to explore the difference in Ae aegypti suitability between the most-suitable and the least-suitable projections.

Findings

Our key finding was that natural climate variability generates substantial variation in future projections of environmental suitability for Ae aegypti. Even for projections generated under the same Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario (SSP3–7.0), in 2100 climatic conditions in London might be suitable for Ae aegypti for 0–5 months of the year, depending on natural climate variability.

Interpretation

Natural climate variability affects environmental suitability for important disease vectors. Some regions could experience vector-borne disease outbreaks earlier than expected under climate change alone.

Funding

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and Wellcome Trust.

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自然气候变异对埃及伊蚊全球分布的影响：数学模型研究。

背景：埃及伊蚊传播影响人类的病原体，包括登革热、寨卡病毒和黄热病病毒。人为的气候变化正在改变埃及伊蚊的空间分布，因此也改变了媒介传播疾病风险的地点。除气候变化外，由大气内部过程和气候系统组分之间的相互作用（如大气-陆地和大气-海洋相互作用）引起的自然气候变率也决定着气候结果。然而，自然气候变率在改变人为气候变化对埃及伊蚊未来环境适宜性的影响中的作用尚未得到充分评估。在这项研究中，我们的目标是评估由自然气候变化引起的埃及伊蚊适应性预测到2100年的不确定性。方法：在数学建模研究中，我们建立了一个埃及伊蚊种群动态依赖于气候变量（温度和降雨量）的生态模型。我们使用了来自社区地球系统模型（Community Earth System Model）的100个未来气候预测，这是一个模拟自然气候变化和人为气候变化的综合气候模型，结合我们的生态模型，生成了一系列同样可信的情景，描述了到2100年埃及伊蚊的全球适宜条件分布。这些情景中的每一个都对应于一个单一的气候预测，使我们能够探索埃及伊蚊在最适合和最不适合的预测之间的适应性差异。研究结果：我们的主要发现是，自然气候变率对埃及伊蚊未来的环境适应性预测产生了实质性的变化。即使在相同的共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景（SSP3-7.0）下生成的预测，2100年伦敦的气候条件可能在一年中0-5个月适合埃及伊蚊，这取决于自然气候的变化。解释：自然气候变率影响重要病媒的环境适宜性。仅在气候变化的情况下，一些地区可能比预期更早爆发病媒传播疾病。资助：工程与物理科学研究委员会和威康信托基金。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Lancet Planetary Health Multiple-

CiteScore

28.40

自引率

2.30%

发文量

272

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold Open Access journal dedicated to investigating and addressing the multifaceted determinants of healthy human civilizations and their impact on natural systems. Positioned as a key player in sustainable development, the journal covers a broad, interdisciplinary scope, encompassing areas such as poverty, nutrition, gender equity, water and sanitation, energy, economic growth, industrialization, inequality, urbanization, human consumption and production, climate change, ocean health, land use, peace, and justice. With a commitment to publishing high-quality research, comment, and correspondence, it aims to be the leading journal for sustainable development in the face of unprecedented dangers and threats.