Sun-Earth debris study, Part 2: Preliminary investigation of debris-induced spacecraft survivability risks near the Sun-Earth collinear Lagrange points

Abstract

In the past two years of 2023-2024, two space vehicles were inserted into orbits about Sun-Earth Lagrange points, joining eight other spacecraft about the L1 and L2 points. As interest in these points grows and become more populated, the chance for artificial space debris to inflict hazard on the region increases. The Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem (CR3BP) may be used to propagate the motion of debris in the region, and this paper investigates the risks associated with a catastrophic spacecraft breakup occurring in currently used or planned orbits about the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 points. The NASA Standard Breakup Model is used for debris generation, and a survivability model is used to calculate the debris related probability of hazard for a spacecraft with respect to a catastrophic breakup in the system. Additionally, a Monte Carlo simulation architecture enables a comprehensive sampling of initial conditions associated with potential breakup scenarios in the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 regions. Overall, this research finds that the maximum probability of hazard for a bystander spacecraft varies greatly on the order of 10−8 to 10−12, based on different initial angular positions between the bystander and breakup spacecraft.