The Long-Term Impacts of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of cigarette tax changes at different ages on long-term smoking behaviors. Using survey data on six decades of birth cohorts and a generalized difference-in-differences study design, I show that an increase in the cigarette tax at any age diminishes the long-term probabilities of smoking initiation and participation and reduces smoking intensity amongst people who currently smoke. These findings suggest that cigarette taxes prevent adults from beginning to smoke and cause people who smoke to promptly smoke less and quit over time. My estimates suggest that an average state tax hike applied to the national population would have caused over 400,000 people to quit smoking and prevented 4,000 deaths from smoking-related causes.