Agreement Between Office-Based and Laboratory-Based Globorisk Models and their Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases in Turkish Population: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

Abstract

Globorisk is a country-specific risk prediction model that estimates 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study aims to evaluate the agreement between different versions of Globorisk and their ability to predict CVD in a nationwide Turkish cohort. Baseline data from 5449 participants aged 40-74 were obtained from Türkiye Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Survey 2011. Office- and laboratory-based Globorisk risk scores were calculated using age, gender, systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking status, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, and total cholesterol levels. Correlation and Bland-Altman analysis were employed to assess the agreement between 10-year risk scores. Multivariable logistic regression models were estimated with Globorisk variables to predict the presence of CVD over a 6-year follow-up period. Model calibration was performed. The study identified 515 incident CVD cases during the 6-year follow-up period. There was a strong positive correlation between 10-year Globorisk versions (r = 0.89). The limit of the agreement was narrower in males (- 6.11 to 6.89%) compared to females (- 7.01 to 7.73%). Age and systolic blood pressure were associated with 6-year CVD in both office- and laboratory-based models. The models showed similar discriminative performance (AUC: 0.68) and predictive accuracy (mean absolute error: 0.009) for 6-year CVD. Both Globorisk models were strongly correlated, had similar discrimination power and predictive accuracy. The office-based Globorisk can be used instead of the laboratory-based model, especially where resources are limited.