An epidemiological modeling investigation of the long-term changing dynamics of the plague epidemics in Hong Kong.

Abstract

Identifying epidemic-driving factors through epidemiological modeling is a crucial public health strategy that has substantial policy implications for control and prevention initiatives. In this study, we employ dynamic modeling to investigate the transmission dynamics of pneumonic plague epidemics in Hong Kong from 1902 to 1904. Through the integration of human, flea, and rodent populations, we analyze the long-term changing trends and identify the epidemic-driving factors that influence pneumonic plague outbreaks. We examine the dynamics of the model and derive epidemic metrics, such as reproduction numbers, that are used to assess the effectiveness of intervention. By fitting our model to historical pneumonic plague data, we accurately capture the incidence curves observed during the epidemic periods, which reveals some crucial insights into the dynamics of pneumonic plague transmission by identifying the epidemic driving factors and quantities such as the lifespan of flea vectors, the rate of rodent spread, as well as demographic parameters. We emphasize that effective control measures must be prioritized for the elimination of fleas and rodent vectors to mitigate future plague outbreaks. These findings underscore the significance of proactive intervention strategies in managing infectious diseases and informing public health policies.