Energy structure optimization and carbon emission control based on weighted mathematical modeling and CGE model

Abstract

The study employs Hebei Province as its research object and employs the weighting method for mathematical modeling to construct an energy structure optimization calculation model under carbon emission control. Secondly, a computable general equilibrium-based model is constructed for the purpose of assessing the impact of an optimal energy structure on the economic development of the province under different planning constraints. The results indicated that when the energy constraint increased from 0.8 to 1.2, the share of coal energy decreased to 61.19% and the share of petroleum energy decreased to 5.02%. The share of natural gas energy increased to 18.41% and the share of non-fossil fuel increased to 15.02%. The total cost of energy increased to 83.04 billion dollars and abatement cost decreased to 2.74 billion dollars. With the gradual completion of the planning constraints, the effect of emission reduction was gradually obvious, but the decline gradually decreased. While abatement costs could be decreased in tandem with rising energy costs, the macroeconomy and environment in the region suffered as a result of rising energy costs. The study indicates that in order to achieve sustainable regional economic development and align with the principles of ecological governance, it is essential to enhance energy management, actively advance the development of clean energy, and strive for equilibrium between economic growth, energy development, and ecological environmental protection. Concurrently, alternative energy sources must be identified through scientific and technological innovation in order to diminish reliance on fossil energy.