Measuring the Uncertainty Impacts During the Systems Engineering Lifecycle

Abstract

Uncertainty is a large part of the systems engineering development process. Particularly absent is the quantification of uncertainty of the threat, operating environment, and friendly force factors at each step of this lifecycle. This paper will explore a methodology to quantify the amount of uncertainty and the interdependencies of the uncertainty factors during the development. Included for consideration are internal and external factors and their contribution to the overall system uncertainty. An illustrative example is provided to exercise this methodology.