Unveiling the resource potential of space debris: A forecast of valuable metals to 2050.

IF 7.1 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Waste management Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI:10.1016/j.wasman.2024.12.019
Fumihiro Hayashi, Arata Kioka, Takuma Ishii, Takumu Nakamura
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Abstract

The proliferation of space debris poses a significant challenge in modern space exploration, with potential repercussions for the future space environment and activities. Various research and technological developments have addressed these concerns, including estimating the number of space debris orbiting the Earth and its efficient removal. This paper proposes a novel resource-oriented perspective on space debris and focuses on the composition and resource potential of space debris. This study forecasts for the first time the annual mass changes in resource materials (Al, Al2O3, Ti, Fe, Cu, and Ag) by the year 2050 by employing a debris environment model simulation. Our simulation reveals that the masses of all the studied resource elements in an Earth orbital altitude of 400 km will increase by 2050. For example, Al and Ti at the 400 km altitude band will increase from 3.0 × 106 kg and 3.2 × 105 kg (in 2016) to 3.8 × 107 kg and 4.2 × 106 kg (in 2050), respectively, climbing at least ten times from 2016 to 2050, on the conservative estimates with a high post-mission disposal success rate. These comparative influxes of Al and Ti in 2050 due to space debris are at least 100 times higher than the natural influxes into the Earth's atmosphere due to meteoroids, further highlighting the significance of space debris. Our simulation results suggest that space debris may hold significant space resource potential in the next 25 years but can be a considerable environmental contaminant impeding space sustainability.

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来源期刊
Waste management
Waste management 环境科学-工程:环境
CiteScore
15.60
自引率
6.20%
发文量
492
审稿时长
39 days
期刊介绍: Waste Management is devoted to the presentation and discussion of information on solid wastes,it covers the entire lifecycle of solid. wastes. Scope: Addresses solid wastes in both industrialized and economically developing countries Covers various types of solid wastes, including: Municipal (e.g., residential, institutional, commercial, light industrial) Agricultural Special (e.g., C and D, healthcare, household hazardous wastes, sewage sludge)
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