Disease burden of cancers attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2031 in China.

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY Cancer Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2024.102725

Zhong Zheng, Shaojie Xu, Jicun Zhu, Qian Yang, Hua Ye, Meng Li, Xiaoyue Zhang, Haiyan Liu, Yifan Cheng, Yuanlin Zou, Yin Lu, Peng Wang

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Abstract

Background: High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been indicated as one of the important risk factors for cancers. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict the burden until 2031.

Methods: The data of cancers attributable to HFPG were extracted from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 project. A joinpoint regression model was conducted to estimate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. The effects of age, period, and cohort were estimated by an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Lastly, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden for the next decade.

Results: From 1990-2021, cancer deaths attributable to HFPG in China increased by 232 % (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 156-330.77 %), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased by 195.4 % (95 % UI: 127.38-289.7 %). In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were 0.6364 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.4234-0.8498 %) and 0.6263 % (95 % CI: 0.3024-0.9512 %), respectively. Among all cancer types, pancreatic cancer had the largest increase in disease burden. The risks of mortality and DALYs increased with age, while showing initial rapid increase with period growth followed by relative stabilization. The cohort effect indicates that males born later had higher risks of mortality and DALYs. Finally, despite a continuous decline in both ASMR and ASDR, the numbers of deaths and DALYs were projected to continue increasing in the next decade.

Conclusions: The disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG significantly increased from 1990 to 2021 in China, and the numbers of deaths and DALYs would continuously increase in the next decade. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce targeted policies controlling the disease burden.

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来源期刊

Cancer Epidemiology 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

3.80%

发文量

200

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Cancer Epidemiology is dedicated to increasing understanding about cancer causes, prevention and control. The scope of the journal embraces all aspects of cancer epidemiology including: • Descriptive epidemiology • Studies of risk factors for disease initiation, development and prognosis • Screening and early detection • Prevention and control • Methodological issues The journal publishes original research articles (full length and short reports), systematic reviews and meta-analyses, editorials, commentaries and letters to the editor commenting on previously published research.