{"title":"Wind changes enhance ENSO","authors":"Bronwyn Wake","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02228-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is projected to alter natural climate phenomena, for example with the phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reported to intensify. The changes in ocean temperature and overlying atmospheric circulation that control the background Pacific state are thought to dictate the ENSO frequency and intensity; however, this is not fully explanatory of ENSO changes seen in model projections.</p><p>Work from Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen of Yale University, Alexey Fedorov and colleagues, considers the role of tropical winds in the future amplification of ENSO with climate change. Using CMIP6 models with a high-emissions scenario and developing a hybrid statistical–dynamical model, they find that wind-stress anomalies — changes in magnitude, zonal structure and meridional width — can explain more than 50% of projected changes in ENSO intensity. Of these changes, the meridional broadening was found to be the most important, and this is supported by a theoretical model. These results suggest that changes in the amplitude of ENSO are, to a large degree, a result of wind-stress anomalies, along with background state changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":29.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Climate Change","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02228-3","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate change is projected to alter natural climate phenomena, for example with the phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reported to intensify. The changes in ocean temperature and overlying atmospheric circulation that control the background Pacific state are thought to dictate the ENSO frequency and intensity; however, this is not fully explanatory of ENSO changes seen in model projections.
Work from Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen of Yale University, Alexey Fedorov and colleagues, considers the role of tropical winds in the future amplification of ENSO with climate change. Using CMIP6 models with a high-emissions scenario and developing a hybrid statistical–dynamical model, they find that wind-stress anomalies — changes in magnitude, zonal structure and meridional width — can explain more than 50% of projected changes in ENSO intensity. Of these changes, the meridional broadening was found to be the most important, and this is supported by a theoretical model. These results suggest that changes in the amplitude of ENSO are, to a large degree, a result of wind-stress anomalies, along with background state changes.
期刊介绍：
Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large.
The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests.
Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles.
Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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