Unveiling the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon storage changes in response to land use/land cover changes under different future scenarios: Insights from the GMOP-SEM model

Abstract

Increasing urbanization and industrialization in China have resulted in drastic land use/land cover (LULC) changes, leading to decreased carbon storage (CS) in terrestrial ecosystems. This study assessed the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of CS evolution from 1990 to 2030 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation, and Gray Multi-objective Optimization Programming models in the Xiong'an New Area. Subsequently, structural equation model was used to explore the driving mechanisms between the influencing factors and CS. The following results were obtained: (1) Between 1990 and 2020, the trend of CS in the Xiong'an New Area showed a fluctuating "decrease-increase-decrease" pattern, and the CS reached a minimum in 2020. The distribution of CS also showed spatial heterogeneity. A reduction in cropland area was the main factor contributing to a lower CS. (2) Under different development scenarios, the CS change in the Xiong'an New Area in 2030 was generally characterized by "rising in the north and falling in the south". Baiyang Lake and its surrounding areas played a key role in maintaining the stability of CS. (3) Economic growth, areas away from railways, and lower population densities had positive impacts on CS, while increases in altitude and temperature had negative impacts on carbon stocks. Moreover, the intensities of their impacts changed under different development scenarios. The results of the study can help support the optimization of LULC patterns and the formulation of sustainable development strategies in the Xiong'an New Area.