Efficacy of fisheries management strategies in mitigating ecological, social, and economic risks of climate warming in China.

Abstract

Climate change has significantly altered fish population dynamics and marine ecosystems worldwide, resulting in multiple ecological, economic and social risks for sustainable fisheries. As a hotspot of global warming, China is anticipated to face with extensive climate-driven changes in marine fisheries and ecosystems, but a clear and adaptative management strategy has not been established. In this study, we assessed the climate adaptiveness of current fisheries management and alternative strategies with diverse management priorities. Dynamic ecosystem model, Ecosim, was used to quantify the effectiveness of these management options in mitigating ecological, social, and economic risks of climate change, as well as the potential trade-offs. Results showed that under the status quo fisheries management, climate warming would dramatically impair ecosystem structure and function, leading to declines in fishery yields, economic losses in the fishing industry, and potential food security crises. However, these climate-driven risks could be mitigated, or at least minimized, through improved fisheries management. The harvest control rule (HCR) strategy, which responds to climate-induced biomass variations, would be most effective in promoting sustainable fisheries production but limited in offsetting climate-driven economic losses; while multispecies strategies can, in a balanced way, help mitigate climate change impacts on sustainable fishery production, ecosystem health, seafood security, and economic profitability. Furthermore, their capability to offset climate-driven risks would be largely compromised with increasing greenhouse emissions, as no management strategy could sustain current ecological, economic and social levels of fisheries under the high-emission scenario. We emphasize the need to pursue a dual approach that incorporates both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and taking adaptive fisheries management strategies to realize fisheries potential and ensure ecological and socio-economic resilience. Although the dynamic model cannot incorporate climate-driven spatial variations, the insights and framework from this work can support the identification of climate-resilient management strategies over long-term and provide guidance on achieving climate-ready fisheries in China and other regions.