A Natural Disaster Exacerbates and Redistributes Disease Risk Among Free-Ranging Macaques by Altering Social Structure

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, with severe implications for ecosystem dynamics. A key behavioural mechanism whereby animals may cope with such events is by altering their social structure, which in turn could influence epidemic risk. However, how and to what extent natural disasters affect disease risk via changes in sociality remains unexplored in animal populations. By simulating disease spread in free-living rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) before and after a hurricane, we demonstrate doubled pathogen transmission rates up to 5 years following the disaster, equivalent to an increase in pathogen infectivity from 10% to 20%. Moreover, the hurricane redistributed the risk of infection across the population by exacerbating sex-related differences. Overall, we demonstrate that natural disasters can amplify and redistribute epidemic risk in animals via changes in sociality. These observations provide unexpected further mechanisms by which extreme weather events can threaten wildlife health, population viability and spillover to humans.