Labour market evolution is a key determinant of global agroeconomic and environmental futures

Abstract

Long-term labour market evolution shapes agricultural transformation through labour productivity growth and labour market transitions. Despite its importance in agricultural production, labour has been overlooked when exploring the agrifood–water–environment–climate nexus. Here we incorporate evolving labour markets into multisector dynamic modelling to examine their agroeconomic and environmental implications. Our projections show that the recent decline of global agricultural employment persists, with an estimated decadal decrease of 43 million people by 2100, strengthening the decoupling of labour from production. Exploring scenarios with varying labour productivity and supply factors, we also show a positive relationship between productivity-adjusted labour supply and agricultural emissions, with more pronounced and heterogeneous regional and sectoral responses. While highlighting the pressing need to capture labour dynamics in integrated human–Earth systems, our study lays the foundation for further investigation into labour market responses and feedback in broader scenarios.