{"title":"An econometric analysis of supply and demand on Sugi sawlog in Japan","authors":"Yuji Higuma , Satoshi Tachibana","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103354","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to clarify the supply and demand on Sugi sawlogs, a major product in the Japanese domestic log market, using econometric methods, and to quantify the impact of socio-economic factors on the supply and demand of domestic logs. We develop a dynamic simultaneous equations model for the supply and demand of Sugi sawlogs. The model is estimated using two-stage least squares, and both short-run and long-run elasticities are calculated. In estimating the model, we verify cointegration within variables. The data is based on annual time series data from 1960 to 2019. The study reveals that own price, logging wage, and stand volume in planted forests all have a significant effect on the supply of Sugi sawlogs, indicating that while higher prices of Sugi sawlogs increase suppliers' willingness to supply of Sugi sawlogs, continued low replanting rates might decrease the supply of Sugi sawlogs in the future. In terms of the demand model, this study observes greater long-run elasticities than those reported in previous studies. This result suggests that a structural change could have occurred in the behavior of sawmills in terms of their demand for logs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 103354"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Forest Policy and Economics","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124002089","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study aims to clarify the supply and demand on Sugi sawlogs, a major product in the Japanese domestic log market, using econometric methods, and to quantify the impact of socio-economic factors on the supply and demand of domestic logs. We develop a dynamic simultaneous equations model for the supply and demand of Sugi sawlogs. The model is estimated using two-stage least squares, and both short-run and long-run elasticities are calculated. In estimating the model, we verify cointegration within variables. The data is based on annual time series data from 1960 to 2019. The study reveals that own price, logging wage, and stand volume in planted forests all have a significant effect on the supply of Sugi sawlogs, indicating that while higher prices of Sugi sawlogs increase suppliers' willingness to supply of Sugi sawlogs, continued low replanting rates might decrease the supply of Sugi sawlogs in the future. In terms of the demand model, this study observes greater long-run elasticities than those reported in previous studies. This result suggests that a structural change could have occurred in the behavior of sawmills in terms of their demand for logs.
期刊介绍:
Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.