An econometric analysis of supply and demand on Sugi sawlog in Japan

IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103354
Yuji Higuma , Satoshi Tachibana
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Abstract

This study aims to clarify the supply and demand on Sugi sawlogs, a major product in the Japanese domestic log market, using econometric methods, and to quantify the impact of socio-economic factors on the supply and demand of domestic logs. We develop a dynamic simultaneous equations model for the supply and demand of Sugi sawlogs. The model is estimated using two-stage least squares, and both short-run and long-run elasticities are calculated. In estimating the model, we verify cointegration within variables. The data is based on annual time series data from 1960 to 2019. The study reveals that own price, logging wage, and stand volume in planted forests all have a significant effect on the supply of Sugi sawlogs, indicating that while higher prices of Sugi sawlogs increase suppliers' willingness to supply of Sugi sawlogs, continued low replanting rates might decrease the supply of Sugi sawlogs in the future. In terms of the demand model, this study observes greater long-run elasticities than those reported in previous studies. This result suggests that a structural change could have occurred in the behavior of sawmills in terms of their demand for logs.
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日本杉木木材供需的计量经济学分析
本研究旨在运用计量经济学方法,厘清日本国内原木市场主要产品杉木锯材的供需状况,并量化社会经济因素对国内原木供需的影响。建立了杉木木材供需动态联立方程模型。采用两阶段最小二乘法对模型进行估计,并计算了短期和长期弹性。在估计模型时,我们验证了变量内的协整。该数据基于1960年至2019年的年度时间序列数据。研究发现,人工林自身价格、采伐工资、人工林林分蓄积量对杉木供给量均有显著影响,表明虽然杉木价格的提高提高了供给者杉木供给量的意愿,但持续的低补种率可能会导致未来杉木供给量的减少。在需求模型方面,本研究观察到比以往研究报告更大的长期弹性。这一结果表明,从对原木的需求来看,锯木厂的行为可能发生了结构性变化。
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来源期刊
Forest Policy and Economics
Forest Policy and Economics 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
9.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
148
审稿时长
21.9 weeks
期刊介绍: Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.
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