Obesity modifies the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and atrial fibrillation in older adults: a community-based longitudinal and prospective cohort study.

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the modifying role of obesity in the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and atrial fibrillation (AF) risk in older individuals.

Methods: From April 2007 to November 2011, 11,663 participants aged ≥60 years were enrolled in the Shandong area. Glucose metabolic status was determined using fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels, and obesity was determined using body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and visceral fat area (VFA). Obesity-associated metabolic activities were assessed using the adiponectin-to-leptin ratio (ALR), galectin-3, and triglyceride-glucose index (TyG). New-onset AF was diagnosed by ICD-10.

Results: During an average of 11.1 years of follow-up, 1343 participants developed AF. AF risks were higher in those with prediabetes, uncontrolled diabetes, and well-controlled diabetes than with normoglycemia. The hazard ratios were decreased by 14.79%, 40.29%, and 25.23% in those with prediabetes; 31.44%, 53.56%, and 41.90% in those with uncontrolled diabetes; and 21.16%, 42.38%, and 27.59% in those with well-controlled diabetes after adjusting for BMI, WHR, and VFA, respectively. The population-attributable risk percentages of general obesity, central obesity, and high VFA for new-onset AF were 10.43%, 34.78%, and 31.30%, respectively. ALR, galectin-3, and TyG significantly mediated the association of BMI, WHR, and VFA with AF risk (all P_adj. < 0.001).

Conclusion: Obesity mediates the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and AF risk in older individuals. WHR is a more effective modifier than BMI and VFA for moderating the association. ALR, TyG, and galectin-3 mediate the moderating effect of obesity on the association between abnormal glucose metabolism and AF risk.