Classifying synoptic patterns driving tornadic storms and associated spatial trends in the United States

Abstract

Severe convective storms and tornadoes rank among nature’s most hazardous phenomena, inflicting significant property damage and casualties. Near-surface weather conditions are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns. It is crucial to delve into the involved multiscale associations to understand tornado potential in response to climate change. Using clustering analysis, this study unveils that leading synoptic patterns driving tornadic storms and associated spatial trends are distinguishable across geographic regions in the U.S. Synoptic patterns with intense forcing featured by intense upper-level eddy kinetic energy and a dense distribution of Z500 fields dominate the increasing trend in tornado frequency in the southeast U.S., generating more tornadoes per event. Conversely, the decreasing trend noted in certain regions of the central Great Plains is associated with weak upper-level synoptic forcing. These findings offer an explanation of observational changes in tornado occurrences, suggesting that the physical mechanisms driving those changes differ across regions.